With the Pro Bowl still a week away, fans will have to settle for watching the Pro Bowl if they want some actual football. While the Pro Bowl lacks the seriousness and edge of a regular season game, it does offer a fair amount of entertainment value. For the third straight year, we’re back to the AFC vs NFC format, with the NFC listed as a slim 1-point favorite with an over/under of 56 points.
Scoring is Down
While the Pro Bowl has become known for offensive fireworks, scoring has been substantially down the last two seasons. From 2007 to 2012, there was an average of 82 points scored. However, with the AFC-NFC format returning the past two years, the teams have combined for 80 total points over those two games, leading to lower-scoring but more competitive games.
Drop Outs
One of the most important aspects of the Pro Bowl is the number of players who are initially selected but then drop out because of injury or personal reasons. Obviously, players on the Rams and Patriots won’t be participating as they prepare for the Super Bowl. But there will also be several other noteworthy absences.
In the AFC, both Antonio Brown and DeAndre Hopkins, as well as tight end Travis Kelce will forgo the Pro Bowl, weakening the weapons around Patrick Mahomes, Andrew Luck, and Deshaun Watson. On defense, defensive tackles Geno Atkins and Jurrell Casey, both selected as starters, will sit this one out, as will J.J. Watt.
Over in the NFC, the initial quarterback trio of Drew Brees, Jared Goff, and Aaron Rodgers are all missing the game, forcing the second string of Russell Wilson, Mitchell Trubisky, and Dak Prescott to step in for them. They will also be without the services of Julio Jones, Michael Thomas, and Zach Ertz. Perhaps more importantly, several projected starters on the offensive line are also choosing not to play. On defense, the likes of Khalil Mack, Aaron Donald, Fletcher Cox, and Landon Collins are all missing the game despite being selected as starters.
Familiarity
One aspect of the Pro Bowl that’s easy to overlook is who is coaching the teams. This year, Jason Garrett and the Dallas staff will handle the NFC while Anthony Lynn and his assistants with the Chargers will be in charge of the AFC team. Garrett has coached the Pro Bowl twice before while this will be Lynn’s first time.
With Garrett coaching and Prescott being named as a replacement at quarterback, the NFC could have some useful familiarity and continuity in their ranks. It should also be helpful to have both Ezekiel Elliott and Amari Cooper playing for the NFC team. The NFC could end up using those three players together and try to mimic a Dallas offense that was productive the second half of the season after Cooper joined the Cowboys.
Know the Rules
Of course, there are some notable rule changes for the Pro Bowl. The most important one to know about is the lack of blitzing, which should favor the AFC quarterback trio of Mahomes, Luck, and Watson more so than Wilson, Trubisky, and Prescott. On top of that, Mahomes and Luck are head and shoulders above the other quarterbacks in the game, which also skews things toward the AFC team. Bet on the AFC to win this year’s Pro Bowl.
