AFC Championship Game: Tennessee Titans at Kansas City Chiefs Betting Pick
It’s not the matchup anybody predicted, but it’s one we should all be excited to see in the AFC Championship Game, as the Kansas City Chiefs host the Tennessee Titans on Sunday. At home, the Chiefs are 7.5-point favorites with an over/under of 53 points.
Things certainly got crazy at Arrowhead Stadium last week after the Chiefs fell behind 24-0 against the Texans early in the second quarter. Oddly enough, it didn’t seem to bother Kansas City in the least, as the Chiefs had already taken the lead before halftime and ended up winning 51-31 like it was just another game.
Meanwhile, one week after winning in New England, the Titans stormed Baltimore and upset the 14-2 Ravens. Despite getting outgained by more than 200 yards, Tennessee won by a comfortable margin. Now the sixth-seeded Titans will try to win their third straight road playoff game and return to the Super Bowl for the first time in 20 years.
Oh, Henry
Tennessee running back Derrick Henry continues to be the most influential player of this year’s playoffs. The Ravens had to know what was coming last week and still couldn’t stop it, as Henry racked up 195 yards on 30 carries.
Henry has been a one-man wrecking crew all season, which is something the Chiefs have already seen first-hand. When these two teams met in Nashville in mid-November, Henry ran for 188 yards on 23 carries with two touchdowns.
For what it’s worth, the Kansas City defense has improved by leaps and bounds since that game. Giving up 31 points last week doesn’t look good, but special teams gaffes are what put the Chiefs in a tough spot.
Other than a long touchdown pass on the first drive of the game, the Kansas City defense didn’t give up much against the Houston offense and did a fine job of stopping the run, so it might be able to provide some resistance against Henry.
Get It Rolling
Offensively, the Chiefs were unstoppable last week once they got rolling. Patrick Mahomes ended up throwing five touchdown passes, with Travis Kelce being his primary target.
Perhaps the most astounding stat is that Kansas City scored 51 points while just possessing the ball for a little over 25 minutes. The Chiefs were able to strike fast and looked as good as they have all season once they got rolling.
While the Tennessee defense deserves credit for holding Lamar Jackson and the Baltimore offense to just 12 points, the Titans also allowed over 500 total yards. If the Titans hadn’t forced three turnovers, last week’s game could have ended differently.
It’s also worth noting that the Chiefs have far better skill players than the Ravens. Of course, that’s a lesson Tennessee should have learned when they faced the Chiefs earlier this year and allowed Mahomes to throw for 446 yards.
Speed vs. Power
If Henry can continue to dominate, the Titans will have a chance to pull off another upset. However, the Titans couldn’t stop Mahomes and the Kansas City offense earlier this season, and they’ll likely struggle to do the same this weekend.
Even with Henry, Tennessee will struggle to win a track meet if they can’t slow down Mahomes. Bet on the Chiefs to win and cover the 7.5-point spread.
