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AFC Playoffs: Indianapolis Colts at Buffalo Bills

After 16 grueling games, the contenders have been separated from the pretenders, and we are ready for playoff football. The first round will start on Saturday, and one of the most interesting matchups features an AFC showdown between the Indianapolis Colts (11-5) and the Buffalo Bills (13-3). Buffalo will host this one at Bills Stadium, with kickoff scheduled for 1:05 pm ET.

The Colts needed a win last weekend and some help, and both came to fruition. Indianapolis beat the Jacksonville Jaguars 28-14 and got their help in the form of a Miami Dolphins loss (to the same Bills team they are about to play). They come in as the underdog, but as an 11-win team, they certainly are no walkover.

For the Bills, they have been one of the hottest teams in the NFL. They finished the regular season on a six-game winning streak, including a 56-26 win over the Dolphins on Sunday. In the victory, Josh Allen threw for 224 yards and three touchdowns.  

Given how well they have played, it is no surprise that the Bills come in as the favorite. They are -295 to win while the Colts’ moneyline sits at +240. The spread features Indianapolis +6.5 while the over/under is 51.

By The Numbers

Offensively, these have been two of the best teams in scoring all season. The Bills rank 2nd in scoring averaging 31.3 points per game. They have been even better as of late, though, as they have averaged 47.3 over their last three games. The Colts rank 9th averaging 28.2 points per game.

Defensively, it is Indianapolis that holds the edge. They rank 10th in scoring defense, allowing 22.6 points per game to opponents. The Bills rank 16th, allowing 23.4 points. 

Colts Hope To Slow Down Bills’ Offense

While the Colts have shown they have enough offense to win most weeks, it may be their defense that will determine whether they can topple the Bills or not. While their rushing offense is stout, it is their pass defense that is concerning.

On the season, they rank 20th in passing defense, allowing 241.6 passing yards per game. Even more concerning, though, they rank 28th over the last three weeks allowing 301.3 yards. If they can’t tighten that up Saturday, it might be a one and done for the Colts.

On the offensive side, it is Philip Rivers that leads the way under center for the Colts. This season, he has thrown for 4,169 yards, 24 touchdowns, and 11 interceptions.

On the ground is where they have been the strongest lately, thanks to the exceptional work of Jonathan Taylor. This season, he has rushed 232 times for 1,169 yards and 11 touchdowns. 

Buffalo Looks To Keep Rolling In Playoffs

The Bills have certainly been playing their best football at the right time and hope to keep it rolling into the playoffs. They are excited to play at home in this opener as they are 7-1 when playing at Bills Stadium. 

The biggest reason for their success this year has been the stellar play of quarterback Josh Allen. It will not be surprising if he gets some consideration, albeit as a longshot, for the league MVP.  

On the year, he has thrown for 4,544 yards, 37 touchdowns, and just ten interceptions. He has also rushed for 421 yards and another eight scores.

His favorite receivers this season have been Stefon Diggs and Cole Beasley. Diggs has 127 receptions for 1,535 yards and eight touchdowns. Beasley also has played well, hauling in 82 receptions for 967 yards and four scores.

Taking Bills To Win And Cover

It is the wrong time for the Colts’ pass defense to be playing poorly. While I think that the Colts can make this a game, it is hard to bet against the Bills with how well they have been playing.

It wouldn’t shock me if the game is close early on, but I anticipate the Bills running away with this one before it is all said and done. Take the Bills despite laying the 6.5 points.

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