AFC Wild Card Betting Pick: Buffalo Bills at Houston Texans

Wild Card Weekend kicks off Saturday with the Houston Texans playing host to the Buffalo Bills. Early betting odds list the Texans as three-point favorites at home, with an over/under of 41.5 points. Oddly enough, both teams enter this game coming off losses.
The Texans sat several key players on Sunday, including quarterback Deshaun Watson, losing 35-14 to Tennessee and more or less handing a playoff spot to their division rivals. The loss means that Houston is yet to win three straight games this season, although they’ve also yet to lose two games in a row.
The Bills, likewise, chose to rest several key starters for their season finale against the Jets. Buffalo had a chance to win but ultimately lost 13-6 in a rain-soaked home finale. The caveat is that the Bills have now lost two in a row and three of their last four games heading into the playoffs. However, two of those losses came against the Ravens and Patriots in competitive games.
The Big Time
This will be Buffalo’s second playoff game in three seasons but the first one for quarterback Josh Allen. He will be the key figure in this game who could determine whether or not the Bills advance. Allen showed some improvement over the course of the season, struggling with turnovers early but throwing just two interceptions compared to 15 touchdown passes over Buffalo’s final 11 games of the season.
However, his completion percentage still leaves something to be desired, especially late in the season, when he faced a series of playoff-caliber defenses.
The Bills will get a break because Houston’s defense can be vulnerable against the run. Despite missing time early in the season due to injury, rookie Devin Singletary averaged better than five yards per carry on the season and could find plenty of running room against the Texans.
Allen is also a threat to make plays with his legs. However, Allen will likely have to create big plays with his arm and avoid critical errors for the Bills to get a win on the road.
Old Hat
For the Texans, this will be their fourth time in the playoffs over the last five seasons. Of course, they’re just 1-3 in the playoffs under Bill O’Brien with two of those losses coming at home. Nevertheless, Watson and company have plenty of playoff experience.
More importantly, at full strength, the Houston offense is one of the most dynamic in the NFL. Carlos Hyde was a 1,000-yard rusher this year, while Watson has a great trio of receivers in DeAndre Hopkins, Will Fuller, and Kenny Stills, although Fuller’s status remains up in the air due to injury.
That being said, the Buffalo defense will make things difficult for them. The Bills have only allowed one team to score more than 24 points against them this season, meaning Houston is unlikely to run away with this game.
The Bills have talent in the secondary that could match up well against Houston’s receivers, while the Buffalo defensive line could create trouble for an offensive line that’s yielded 49 sacks in 16 games this season.
Enough to Escape
The Bills aren’t going to make this easy for the Texans. However, Watson is more experienced and more capable of creating big plays than Allen. He’ll do enough to give Houston passage to the next round. Bet on the Texans to win and cover the three-point spread.