AFC Wild Card: Tennessee Titans at New England Patriots Betting Pick

Two years after meeting in the divisional round of the playoffs, the New England Patriots will once again cross paths with the Tennessee Titans in this year’s Wild Card round on Saturday. At home, the Patriots are 4.5-point favorites with an over/under of 43.5 points.
It was touch and go for a while, but Tennessee finally managed to secure the final playoff spot in the AFC in Week 17. After making Ryan Tannehill their starting quarterback, the Titans won six of their next seven games, only to lose back-to-back contests to the Texans and Saints when the playoffs were within their grasp.
However, with a little good fortune, the Titans beat an undermanned Houston team the final week of the season to secure a playoff spot.
Meanwhile, concerns continue to pile up about the Patriots, who lost three of their last five games to close out the regular season. It wouldn’t be that big of a deal if New England hadn’t lost to the lowly Dolphins in Week 17, a loss that cost them a first-round bye.
Without an extra week of rest, the Patriots are now playing on Wild Card weekend for the first time in a decade.
Tom vs. Father Time
Is this it for Tom Brady and the Patriots dynasty? If New England has one more Super Bowl push in it, it will need Brady to do the heavy lifting. Outside of a sound performance against the Bills in Week 16, Brady hasn’t been himself down the stretch.
He’s thrown an interception in three of his last five games and completed a mere 57.5 percent of his passes in December, which is a considerable drop-off from the norm for the 42-year-old quarterback.
Brady’s problem is that the rest of his teammates aren’t doing enough to help. New England’s rushing attack gained just 3.8 yards per carry on the season.
The Patriots are also lacking a downfield threat in the passing game with Julian Edelman and James White doing most of the damage. Brady and company will face a tough task this week against a Tennessee defense that’s been stingy most of the season.
Oh, Henry!
While Tannehill has proven to be a massive upgrade over Marcus Mariota at quarterback, running back Derrick Henry remains the most important player for the Tennessee offense. The Titans finished third in the NFL in rushing yards, with Henry gaining over 1,500.
That includes 211 yards and three touchdowns in Week 17, proving that he’s healthy after missing Week 16 with a hamstring injury.
Of course, the New England defense has been strong against the run all season. Even in their recent losses, the Patriots haven’t allowed themselves to get beat on the ground.
Obviously, Henry has been better than the average running back this season. But the Titans are still going to need Tannehill to play at a high level and force the Patriots to respect their passing attack.
Familiar Territory
The Patriots aren’t used to playing in the Wild Card round, but the playoffs are still the playoffs, and they know what they’re doing this time of year. Brady will no doubt be looking for redemption after last week’s disaster while the New England defense will step up in the team’s hour of need.
It won’t be pretty, but the Patriots will find a way to survive. Bet on New England to win straight up, although covering 4.5 points might be asking a lot.