Alabama Crimson Tide at Vanderbilt Commodores Betting Pick – Week 6

SEC Network will be covering this week six college football matchup between the Alabama Crimson Tide and Vanderbilt Commodores. Kick-off is set for 4:15 ET from FirstBank Stadium in Nashville. Alabama is coming in with a 4-0 record, while Vanderbilt is 2-2. The Crimson Tide are the heavy favorite at -23 points, with the over/under line currently set at 55.5 points.
Alabama’s Dominance
Alabama enters Week 6 with a 4-0 record and a 100% chance of becoming bowl-eligible. They are 2nd in our power rankings and have a 29.9% chance of winning the Southeastern. Alabama has a 91.1% chance of making the playoff.
The Crimson Tide have a +32 scoring margin this season and are 3-1 ATS. The over/under line for this week’s game is 55.5 points. Alabama’s games have averaged 62 points, and they are 3-1 ATS, with an average margin of +6.6 points above the line.
Alabama’s offense is 13th in our power rankings and 7th in scoring, averaging 47 points per game. Jalen Milroe has thrown for 969 yards with a 143 passer rating. Alabama is 2nd in passer rating and 5th in completion percentage, completing 72% of their passes.
On defense, Alabama is 11th, allowing 15 points per game. They are giving up 121 rushing yards per game on 34.5 attempts. Alabama’s pass defense has a 62.5 passer rating and is allowing 196.5 passing yards per game.
Vanderbilt’s Balanced Attack
Vanderbilt’s offense is averaging 37 points per game, placing them 23rd in the nation, and they are ranked 25th in our offensive power rankings heading into week 6. Diego Pavia leads the passing attack with a passer rating of 113, having thrown for 721 yards and six touchdowns without an interception. Vanderbilt ranks 14th nationally in passer rating.
They are 78th in passing attempts per game, averaging 184.5 yards through the air. Pavia has completed 63.5% of his passes. On the ground, Vanderbilt averages 170.2 rushing yards per game. Sedrick Alexander has rushed for 217 yards and three touchdowns, averaging 4 yards per carry.
Vanderbilt’s defense, ranked 33rd nationally, is allowing 23.2 points per game this season. In their recent game against Missouri, they gave up 30 points and 442 total yards, including 216 rushing yards and 226 passing yards.
Our Betting Prediction
Our projections have Alabama winning this matchup with Vanderbilt by a score of 36-16. Vanderbilt is the +23 point underdog, but we like their chances to cover the spread in this one.
With the over/under line set at 55.5 points, we recommend taking the under, as our model suggests a combined score of 52 points. Bet on Vanderbilt and the in this one!