A pivotal Game 6 hits the ice in Edmonton Thursday night in the Western Conference playoffs. The Dallas Stars are one win away from advancing to the second round of the playoffs, but the Calgary Flames are fighting to keep the series going and sending it to the all-important Game 7.
Here is a preview for Thursday night’s matchup between the Stars and the Flames, along with a recap on this wild series and a free pick. Dallas is currently favored to win and close the series out, listed at -125.
Series Recap
Way back when the series began, the Flames had the early advantage. Led by a pair of goals from right wing Dillon Dube as well as a 24-save effort from Cal Talbot, Calgary defeated Dallas 3-2 to take the opening game.
Defenseman Rasmus Andersson scored the game-winning goal late in the second period after the Flames blew a two-goal lead in a span of nine seconds.
Game 2 saw lots of offense, with the two teams combining for nine goals and eight power-play chances. But in a tie game with 40 seconds to go, defenseman Jamie Oleksiak scored the game-winner as the Stars won 5-4 and tied up the series.
Heading into the third, defenseman Miro Heiskanen’s two goals spurred Dallas to a 4-2 lead before the lead evaporated thanks to a shorthanded goal from RW Tobias Rieder and a power-play score from left wing Sam Bennett. But the Stars managed to prevail, outshooting their opponents by 10 in the process.
The following night was a different story, where on the shoulders of Talbot, the Flames blanked the Stars 2-0 and took the series lead yet again. Talbot has 35 saves to earn his fifth win of the postseason, while Calgary scored their second shorthanded goal in as many nights thanks to center Mikael Backlund. Defenseman TJ Brodie also scored for the Flames, who were once again out-shot by 12.
Game 4 was perhaps the craziest of them all. Center Joe Pavelski scored his first career playoff hat trick with the final goal coming with 12 seconds to go in regulation, followed by right wing Alexander Radulov scoring the game-winner in overtime to lift Dallas to the 5-4 win.
Pavelski provided much of the offense for the Stars, as did right wing Denis Gurianov, who scored a power-play goal late in the second. Calgary got two goals from Bennett, as well as a power-play goal from left wing Johnny Gaudreau and another shorty from Rieder. Dallas also had 62 shots in the game to Calgary’s 40.
Finally, in Game 5, defense and goaltending seemed to be the theme once again. Anton Khodobin’s 28 saves bested the 30-save performance from Talbot as the Stars outlasted the Flames 2-1 to take a series lead.
After left wing Jamie Benn’s shorthanded goal was equalized by Backlund’s score in the first, both teams were scoreless until early in the third, where defenseman John Klingberg scored the eventual game-winner. Just one shot separated the clubs, who also went a combined 0-for-6 on the power play.
Key to Victory
Dallas will win if: Its top line starts producing. Even though the Stars are a team built around dominant defense, their top line has a trio of very solid point producers.
Benn, Radulov, and center Tyler Seguin have largely been quiet since bubble play began in Edmonton. Seguin, in particular, as the talented center has yet to score and has just three assists in seven games. Dallas needs more from this group, and if they get it, they should be in good shape.
Calgary will win if: Its five-on-five play improves. Although this series has had close scores and tight finishes, the Flames have actually been well behind Dallas for much of the series.
Out of the 14 goals they’ve scored this series, four have come on the power play, and three have come while shorthanded. While impressive, it’s hardly sustainable, as no Calgary player currently owns a 50% Corsi-for percentage this postseason.
The Flames’ special teams and the play of Talbot have bailed them out, so an improvement at even strength is essential for them to win.
Prediction
This series has had the makings of a back-and-forth affair, but I think that ends Thursday night. Although Calgary has had a pair of wins, Dallas has thoroughly outplayed them in this series as a whole, evident by the shots on goal difference as well as the play during five-on-five.
Furthermore, between the qualifying round and the first round of the playoffs, we are seeing far more teams with a chance to close out the series doing so as opposed to having the series drag out. I’m picking the Stars to be the third team out West to advance to the conference semifinals.
Pick: Stars -125
