It will be a rivalry matchup of NL Central teams on Monday, with the Chicago Cubs (4-5) taking on the Milwaukee Brewers (5-4). The Brewers will host this one at American Family Field, with the first pitch scheduled for 7:40 pm ET.
The Cubs had a rough weekend, losing two of three from the Pittsburgh Pirates, including the last two games in a row. On Sunday, Chicago lost 7-1 after starter Trevor Williams gave up 10 hits and five runs in just over three innings. Javier Baez hit his third home run of the season in the loss.
Milwaukee had much better success taking on the Cardinals, beating them in two of three. On Sunday, the Brewers won 9-3 behind five innings of one-run ball by starter Brett Anderson. The Brewers also smashed three home runs in the win.
Milwaukee is the favorite in this one playing at home. The Brewers are -138 to win, while the Cubs’ moneyline is +118. The run line features Chicago +1.5, while the over/under for total runs is 8.5.
Pitching Matchup
This is a rematch of starting pitchers from a game last Tuesday when the Brewers beat the Cubs 4-0. For the Cubs, it will be Adbert Alzolay taking the mound.
In that loss, he went five innings, allowing four earned runs and striking out four. One slight concern for the youngster is the long ball, as he gave up two home runs in the loss.
For Milwaukee, it will be Freddy Peralta on the bump. In that first start against the Cubs, he only allowed one hit and no runs in five innings pitched. He did struggle with command at times, walking four, but he also struck out eight.
By The Numbers
Offensively, both of these teams have been in the bottom third of the league thus far. Milwaukee ranks 22nd in scoring, averaging 3.62 runs per game. The Cubs rank 29th, averaging just 3.12 runs.
Defensively, these two are tied in the top third of the majors. They rank ninth, as they are both allowing just 3.75 runs per game. The Cubs have allowed 4.67 in their last three versus the Brewers giving up 3.33.
Cubs Have To Figure Out Offense
When you have Anthony Rizzo, Kris Bryant, Javier Baez, Willson Contreras, Joc Pederson and others on your team, you would expect to score a lot of runs. Unfortunately, the offense has just not been as dynamic as one would have expected both to start this season and in recent seasons.
Amazingly, of the starters, no one is hitting over .242 (Baez), and only three starters are even hitting at .200 or higher. Even in a winnable NL Central, that just isn’t going to get it done.
Baez and Bryant have combined for five home runs, and the team has 11 total, but there is just a lot to be desired when it comes to the Cubs’ bats right now. It might be for that reason that they have the fourth-best odds to win the division at +450, ahead of only the Pirates.
Milwaukee Quietly A Really Solid Team
While the Brewers only have the third-best odds to win the division (+280), they have already shown that they can’t be taken lightly. In fact, they just took two of three from the favorites to win the division (Cardinals) and made it look relatively easy in their last two games.
As in recent years, the bullpen is a real weapon, with the likes of Josh Hader, Devin Williams and others, but the offense has been respectable too.
The Brewers have four players with two home runs apiece, and one of those players, Omar Narvaez, has caught fire. The catcher is hitting .455/.520/727 with two home runs and five runs batted in.
It is worth noting that both Christian Yelich and Travis Shaw had to leave the game on Sunday with injuries, so it could be likely that both sit out Monday.
Taking Cubs On The Run Line
Compared to the last time these two pitchers faced off, I would expect a little regression to the mean. Alzolay is not nearly as bad as he was in the first start, while Peralta is not nearly as dominant.
With that being said, I could see this one being close throughout, especially since the Brewers might be without a couple of their best hitters in Yelich and Shaw. Since it could be close, the Cubs at +1.5 on the run line might be a smart bet.
