The Chicago Cubs renew their rivalry with the St. Louis Cardinals with a three-game series that begins Friday night in St. Louis. At home, the Cardinals are -120 favorites to win the series opener.
St. Louis opened the season with a strong April but has plummeted in May. On the final day of the month, the Cards are a game under .500 and 4.5 games behind the Cubs in the NL Central. The good news is they won on Thursday to snap a three-game skid, but the bad news is they haven’t won back-to-back games since May 1.
Meanwhile, the Cubs are clinging to a half-game lead over the Brewers atop the NL Central. Chicago has fallen on some hard times over the past week, losing back-to-back series to the Reds and Astros. They narrowly avoided a sweep in Houston earlier this week and now continue their road trip in St. Louis.
Up to Yu
Yu Darvish will get the start for the Cubs on Friday. Unlike last year, Darvish has been able to stay healthy in 2019. But that’s all that has gone well for him this season. In 11 starts, he’s 2-3 with a 5.40 ERA. Quality starts have been rare for him, and his ERA has remained above 5.00 all season. Against the Reds in his last time out, Darvish got knocked around for six runs on 12 hits over seven innings, so his confidence can’t be too high right now.
When Darvish faced the Cardinals earlier this month, he allowed five runs over four innings, hurting himself with five walks. The good news is that several members of the St. Louis lineup have been ice-cold over the last week. Paul Goldschmidt, Marcell Ozuna, and Matt Carpenter have been swinging good bats lately, but the Cardinals are struggling to get much going outside of that trio.
Fake Ace
Miles Mikolas will get the nod for St. Louis on Friday. The Cardinals entered the season hoping Mikolas would continue to pitch like a frontline starter after last season, but things have not played out that way. In his 11 starts, Mikolas is just 4-5 with a 4.76 ERA. He’s lost his last three starts, including one outing in which he only managed to get four outs before being pulled.
The good news for Mikolas is that he has a decent history against the Cubs, and he’s facing them at a time when they’re struggling to score runs. The Cubs are hitting for plenty of power these days, but outside of Anthony Rizzo and Addison Russell, nobody’s hitting for a particularly high average over the last week. Of course, Mikolas has allowed four home runs over his last nine innings, so he may not be able to prevent the long ball.
Unconvinced
The Cardinals may be a slight favorite in this game, but it’s hard to find convincing reasons for them to win. With Darvish starting, it’s hard to be confident in the Cubs either. But the better team is the underdog and would offer the bigger payout, so bet on the Cubs to beat the Cardinals on Friday.
