Monday is the start of a new week as well as a new series between the Cincinnati Reds and the Milwaukee Brewers. So far in 2019, this National League Central rivalry has been surprisingly contested. The Brewers hold the edge, winning seven of the 13 matchups, but the Reds have stood their ground. In fact, the Reds have won the last three games against the Brew Crew, including two straight shutouts.
Unfortunately for the Reds, they haven’t fared that well against the rest of the league, and currently only sit at 44-53 and seven games out of the Wild Card. On the other side, the Brewers have one of the best players on the planet in Christian Yelich, but their rotation has let them down. They will probably make a move at the deadline after the Brandon Woodruff injury (Madison Bumgarner?), but they currently hold the last Wild Card spot and are only two games out of the division lead.
Probable Pitchers
For the Reds, Sonny Gray will get the start for the 20th time this season. Gray came over to Cincy in an offseason trade with the Yankees that sent Shed Long to New York (and then immediately to Seattle). Gray has been very solid in his first season for the Reds, going 5-6 so far with a 3.40 earned run average. His FIP is actually 3.36, which is his lowest since his rookie season in Oakland.
Over his last four starts, Gray has been very good. He has not given up more than two runs in any of those starts, and his strikeout numbers are off the charts. He hasn’t had a K/9 in the double digits at any point in his big-league career, but this season he sits at 10.45. The catalyst of this has been his terrific sliders and curveball, both well over league average according to Fangraphs.
Another thing that Gray has done a great job of this season is limiting the number of home runs he has given up. In 12 of his 19 starts, he has not given up a home run and is on track to have a HR/9 under one for the second straight season.
For the Brewers, Chase Anderson will appear in his 20th game of the season and make his 15th start. Anderson did not have the best start to 2019, as he broke camp in the bullpen and gave up runs in his first four relief appearances. But since moving back to the rotation April 20, he has returned to his reliable form. He’s currently 5-2 with a 3.96 earned run average and can be counted to give you five solid innings and limit the damage on the scoreboard. Anderson has struggled so far this season against Cincy, going 0-1 with an ERA of 6.75 earned run average in two starts.
The Pick
The Brewers have Christian Yelich. Most times that is enough to warrant a pick by itself. But the Reds are a terrific pitching team, fifth in the league in ERA. Sonny Gray is on a roll, and after the Woodruff injury, you just can’t trust the pitching in Milwaukee. Take the Reds and hold on to your seat.
