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Dallas Stars Try To Close Out The Seattle Kraken

Dallas Stars Try To Close Out The Seattle Kraken


The Dallas Stars have a chance to close out the second-round series with the Seattle Kraken and become the first team to punch a ticket to the Western Conference Finals on Saturday. As the only game on Saturday’s schedule, all eyes will be on this one.

Puck drop is at 7:00 PM ET at Climate Pledge Arena and will air on ESPN.

Both Teams Making the Most of Chances

Seattle and Dallas hold the top two spots in goals above expected (Seattle at 6.25, Dallas at 4.17) in all situations. This tells us both squads are taking and converting on good shot opportunities but also that there has been some “puck luck” along the way.

The Kraken fall much more in line on expected goals against, whereas the GSAx for the playoffs is at 0.74 (40 goals against, 40.74 expected goals against). However, the Stars’ team GSAx has tanked a bit due to shaky performances from Jake Oettinger in Games One and Three (team rate is -3.34, Oettinger individually is at -2.30).

Dallas has dominated the faceoff dot, winning 57.8% of their opportunities and upping that rate to 62.0% in the offensive zone. Both percentages lead the league this postseason.

However, Seattle also leads the postseason in hits (491) and ranks second in blocked shots (217). Jamie Oleksiak’s 41 blocked shots lead all postseason skaters, while Oleksiak, Brandon Tanev, and Adam Larsson all rank in the top 10 in hits.

Roope Hintz has been the focal point of the series and is tied for second among playoff skaters with 18 points (eight goals, 10 assists). Lock in his over 0.5 points at -165 and consider choosing him as an anytime goalscorer at +150.

Injury Report

Mason Marchment was injured earlier in the series and took part in the team’s optional skate on Friday. He’s traveling with the team to Seattle and looks to be a game-time decision, but trending toward playing.

Daniel Sprong left Game Three with an upper-body injury and missed all of Games Four and Five. His status is still in question, though it doesn’t look like he’ll be in Saturday’s lineup.

The Odds

The Stars are moneyline favorites on the road at -155, while the Kraken are +155 at home. Dallas is 3-2 as visitors this postseason, while Seattle is 2-3 at home.

On the puck line, Dallas -1.5 goals pays out +160, while Seattle +1.5 goals has -190 odds. The over/under total is at 6.

The Pick

Road teams are 40-30 this postseason straight up, and the total has gone over in every game this series. Given Dallas’ road record and their command of the series over the past two games, we trust the Stars to clinch the series and advance.

However, the value play here is with Dallas on the puck line. An empty-net goal may seal the win, with Seattle desperate to score a late equalizer.

Score Prediction: Dallas Stars 4, Seattle Kraken 2.

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