The 2-2 New England Patriots will be looking to right their ship as they host the 1-3 Denver Broncos on Monday night.
The main story out of New England has unfortunately been COVID-related, as starting QB Cam Newton, and star defensive back Stephon Gilmore have both tested positive in the last week. Because of these positive tests, the meeting with Denver has been pushed to Monday.
Newton was forced to miss last week’s tilt against Kansas City, a game in which both journeyman Brian Hoyer and second-year man Jarrett Stidham made appearances, ending in a 26-10 Chiefs win. Both QBs were unimpressive to say the least.
Newton and Gilmore’s Status
Both Newton and Gilmore have been asymptomatic despite testing positive. Per the NFL’s COVID procedures, there is a chance both can still play on Monday if they have two negative tests in the span of 24 hours. This is a developing story, especially in Gilmore’s case, as his positive result came after Monday’s game against Kansas City.
If more positives arise between either New England or Kansas City, we are looking at a larger problem.
For the sake of this breakdown, let us prepare for the game as if both of these Patriots will miss Sunday’s game.
Broncos Coming off Mini-Bye
What sticks out to me in this game is rest. The Broncos are coming off a 37-28 win against the New York Jets last Thursday, while the Pats were forced to play on Monday due to the Sunday postponement because of Newton’s positive test.
This is a stark difference in recovery time and preparation between the two teams, which obviously favors the Broncos. Layer on the COVID-related roadblocks the Patriots have dealt with this week, and Denver as +9.5 underdogs looks very appealing.
Even if Denver does not win this game, they are rested and facing off against a team missing their most important players on both sides of the ball, putting the Broncos in a good position to cover the point spread.
It looks like Brett Rypien will be getting the start again for Denver, as Drew Lock works his way back from a shoulder injury. Rypien showed some good and some bad last Thursday, throwing for 242 yards and two touchdowns, but tossing three interceptions.
Broncos runner Melvin Gordon is coming off his best game of the year (103 yards and two touchdowns) and will be going against a New England defense giving up 115 yards per game on the ground.
The potential absence of Gilmore cannot be understated. The reigning Defensive Player of the Year is the focal point of New England’s defensive identity. If he cannot go, it opens everything up for Denver.
Belichick: Not Going Anywhere
I would be remiss to not acknowledge who is running the Patriots and the sustained excellence he has achieved. New England is 14-6 ATS as the home favorite in their last 20.
The “next man up” mantra is most applicable to this team, and Belichick is sure to have his players ready for a Denver team that hasn’t impressed this year. It looks like Stidham will be getting the start (his first in the NFL) after Hoyer’s pocket awareness, or lack thereof, continuously took points off the board for New England last week.
Props and Pick
Keep an eye on Broncos rookie WR Jerry Jeudy’s over/under for receiving yards if Gilmore does not play. Tim Patrick is also another strong bet for a big day as Patrick (113 and a TD) and Jeudy (61 and a TD) are coming off solid games against the Jets. Starting TE Noah Fant will be unavailable this weekend, opening up an influx of targets that one or both is sure to capitalize on.
The combination of scheduling fortuitousness and COVID impact has me leaning on the Broncos to cover the 9.5 spread.
