Big Monday gets underway this week when the no. 2 Duke Blue Devils visit the Notre Dame Fighting Irish. The Blue Devils are listed as 14-point favorites on the road.
Duke has done a fine job of bouncing back from their loss to Syracuse two weeks ago. The Blue Devils have rattled off three straight wins since that setback, knocking off Virginia, Pittsburgh, and Georgia Tech. Of course, they are still just one of four ACC teams with one conference loss, so the race for a regular season title remains tight.
Meanwhile, Notre Dame sits at the bottom of the ACC standings. The Irish are just 1-6 in conference play, tying them with Wake Forest for last place. To be fair, four of those six losses have come against teams that were ranked at the time. Four of those losses have also come by 10 points or less, so they’ve stayed competitive. However, the Irish haven’t found a way to win ACC games this season.
Not Falling
Most years, Notre Dame is one of the better shooting teams in the ACC, but that’s not been the case this season. As a team, the Irish are shooting below 33% from the perimeter with John Mooney the only players making more than 40% of his three-point attempts. They’ve also been below 30% from outside in four of their last five games, which isn’t a winning formula for a team without much of a post presence.
Part of the reason for Notre Dame’s struggles is their lack of health. Senior Rex Pflueger was lost early in the season while big man Juwan Durham continues to miss time due to a sprained ankle. The Irish are now relying on four freshmen in what has been whittled down to an 8-man rotation. Perhaps more importantly, Durham’s absence leaves them without much size or physicality inside, a shortcoming that could be tough to overcome against Duke.
Back Together
After a 2-game absence, point guard Tre Jones returned to Duke’s lineup for their Saturday win over Georgia Tech, putting the Blue Devils back at full strength. Jones had just six points in that game, as the Blue Devils didn’t get much scoring outside of the 22 points from Zion Williamson and 24 from RJ Barrett while making just two of their 21 three-point attempts.
However, Jones being back in the lineup puts Duke at full strength, particularly at the defensive end of the court. The Blue Devils struggled defensively without Jones against Syracuse and Virginia. But with the way Jones applies ball pressure against opposing point guards, the Blue Devils can better hide their deficiencies on that end of the floor. As long as Jones can lead the defense and distribute the ball, the offense of Williamson and Barrett will be enough to beat most times, even if the Blue Devils don’t get much from their supporting cast.
Mismatch
In Notre Dame’s defense, they’ve kept games competitive with the likes of North Carolina and NC State. But facing Duke is a whole other matter. On paper, the Irish will struggle to match up against the Blue Devils, creating the possibility for a blowout. Bet on Duke covering the 14-point spread on Big Monday.
