Everyone’s Got A First Time: Gambling USA’s Tampa Bay Lightning vs Toronto Maple Leafs Game Five Betting Preview

The Toronto Maple Leafs are on the verge of doing the unthinkable: advancing past the first round of the Stanley Cup Playoffs after seven consecutive first-round exits. The Maple Leafs hold a 3-1 series lead after staging a third-period comeback and winning game four in overtime, pushing the three-time reigning Eastern Conference champion Tampa Bay Lightning to the brink of elimination.

Will the Maple Leafs win their first playoff series since 2004, or will Tampa Bay extend the series to game six and make Leafs’ nation sweat another potential first-round collapse? GamblingUSA previews and makes our expert NHL betting picks for game five between Tampa Bay and Toronto.

Tampa Bay Lightning vs Toronto Maple Leafs Head-To-Head Records

The Toronto Maple Leafs have won three straight games and five of the last six against the Tampa Bay Lightning. The Maple Leafs hold a 5-3 head-to-head seasons series lead and a 3-1 first-round playoff series lead.

Some head-to-head betting trends to consider: the over is 5-0 in the previous five meetings and 7-1 in the eight Lightning vs Maple Leafs’ matchups in 2022-23. The road team is 4-1 in the previous five meetings.

Tampa Bay had an 18-22-1 record on the road, while Toronto posted a 27-8-6 home record this season.

Tampa Bay Lightning vs Toronto Maple Leafs Stats

The Toronto Maple Leafs are ranked first, averaging 4.75 goals per game, while the powerplay is converting at 35.3% (fourth overall) in the playoffs.

Tampa Bay is ranked third in the playoffs and averaging 4.0 goals per game, while the powerplay is converting at 29.4% (sixth overall).

Statistically speaking, neither goalie has been spectacular in this series. Future Hall-of-Famer and Lightning number one goalie Andrei Vasilevski has posted a 4.33 GAA and a .856 SV% in four games.

Toronto’s starting goalie Ilya Samsonov has posted a 3.72 GAA and a .876 SV%, while backup Joespeh Woll has a 3.00 GAA and a .800SV% in one relief appearance.

Tampa Bay Lightning vs Toronto Maple Leafs Odds

We’ll quickly review the odds and betting records before giving our Lightning vs Maple Leafs betting prediction.

Toronto (-1.5) is the home favorite, listed between -154 and -160, while Tampa Bay (+1.5) is the underdog, with odds between +130 and +135. The Maple Leafs have a 41-45 ats record, while the Lightning have a 40-46 ats record.

The total goals line is set at 6.5, with the over listed at -115 odds and the under at -105. Tampa Bay has a 45-36-5 over/under record, while Toronto has a 41-41-4 over/under record.

Tampa Bay Lightning vs Toronto Maple Leafs Betting Prediction

If you weren’t on the Maple Leafs bandwagon before game four, we don’t blame you.

However, after Toronto’s come-from-behind 5-4 overtime win, this Leafs’ squad is different, the momentum is on Toronto’s side, and we expect the Toronto Maple Leafs to actually win a playoff series for the first time since 2004.

This Toronto team has been better than Tampa Bay all season long. The Lightning might have one last charge in them, but when factoring performances and injuries to Tampa’s defense core, we expect the Maple Leafs to win tonight, scoring their sixth win in the previous seven games against the Lightning.

We’re taking the Maple Leafs to win on the moneyline. We’re also following the head-to-head season-long trends between the Maple Leafs and Lightning and picking game five to hit the over.

NHL Picks: Toronto Maple Leafs ML, Over 6.5