Florida State Seminoles at Louisville Cardinals Betting Pick

The ACC gets back into full swing on Saturday, and fans won’t have to wait for a marquee matchup as the No. 18 Florida State Seminoles head to No. 7 Louisville for a battle of two of the top three teams in the conference.
Florida State is currently 12-2 overall and 2-1 in ACC play on the season and has won five in a row after losing to Indiana in Bloomington during the ACC/Big Ten Challenge. While the backcourt duo of Trent Forrest and Devin Vassell has led the Seminoles on offense, with each scoring over 11 points per game, it has been their defense that has set the tone on the season.
Vassell is one of only eight players in the ACC to have logged over 350 minutes this season with a defensive rating of under 88. Both players currently rank in the top 15 in the ACC in total steals.
In fact, there are only two guards in the ACC that have 10 blocks, 15 steals and 45 rebounds on the season, and that is the Florida State backcourt of Vassell and Forrest.
Louisville comes into Saturday’s game after a week off following an overtime loss to rival Kentucky. The Cardinals made a valiant effort, fighting back from a 12-point second-half deficit, but couldn’t overcome the struggles of star forward Jordan Nwora on the defensive end.
The Cardinals remain one of the most talented and deep teams in the nation but are desperately seeking reliable alternate scoring options. Highly-regarded freshman Samuell Williamson has been non-existent in recent weeks.
Louisville is a 6.5-point favorite in this game, with the over/under set at 132.
On The Warpath
The Seminoles are 2-1 straight up against ACC opponents and have held all three to 61 points or less. Florida State comes into the game at 6-7-1 against the spread and 7-7 on the over/under.
Over their last four games, however, the Seminoles are 0-3-1 against the spread. The total has also gone under in each of Florida State’s last five games on the road.
A Redbird Of Prey?
Despite losing two of their last four, the Cardinals are still one of the best teams in the nation. Louisville is 9-0 straight up at home but just 5-4 against the spread at home at 7-6 ATS overall.
The Cardinals have gone over in three of their last four games, but over in 11 of their last 16 games played on Saturday.
Pick and Prediction
Louisville continues to be one of the slowest teams in the nation, ranking 304th in Kenpom’s tempo metric. Only Virginia, Virginia Tech and Pittsburgh are slower among ACC programs. With that tempo comes a dependence on offensive efficiency.
In their two losses this season, the Cardinals shot a combined 10-of-44 from behind the arc. Florida State is currently holding opponents to roughly 32 percent from three-point range on the season while turning opponents over at a ridiculous 26.4 percent on defense.
Of course, none of this will matter if Nwora gets back to his superstar ways. In games where Nwora scores 18 or more points, the Cardinals are undefeated. When he scores 14 or less, they are 0-2.
The biggest concern for Louisville is Forrest, Vassell and Anthony Polite defending their perimeter. All three are long, athletic and bigger than the likes of Ryan McMahon, Darius Perry, Fresh Kimble, and David Johnson.
This could very well be the toughest matchup for Louisville so far this season. Not only will Florida State cover, but they’re going to win this game straight up in a really good game. Take the Seminoles and play the under.