The Golden State Warriors (14-13) look to complete a back-to-back sweep of the top two teams in the Eastern Conference when they visit the Milwaukee Bucks (19-7) on Tuesday night. The Warriors just throttled the 21-7 Celtics 123-107 on Saturday in a stout defensive effort against the league’s highest-scoring team (119.3).
Milwaukee did not fare as well in their last game, falling 97-92 in Houston even as double-digit favorites. The Bucks are back home, though (12-3), and the Warriors continue to be an anomaly on the road (2-11), which is a big reason Milwaukee catches a -4.5 line in this matchup.
Golden State Has Success Against Antetokounmpo
Golden State harassed Boston’s Jayson Tatum on Saturday night, forcing him into 6-21 shooting while holding him under 20 points (18) for just the second time in the last 11 games. The Warriors hope to mirror that defensive game plan against Giannis Antetokounmpo, who just got held in check by Houston for his lowest-scoring output of the season with 16 points.
The Warriors have done a solid job matching up with Antetokounmpo over the years, holding him to 19.1 ppg in 16 games. That number drops even a bit more to 18.4 ppg in 10 of those 16 games that Draymond Green has played in and guarded Antetokounmpo.
While it wouldn’t be a shocker if Golden State pulled out a win here, there are two things really weighing against making them the play. The first is that Andrew Wiggins remains out with a thigh injury, and the second is that the Warriors are so atrocious on the road. Golden State is 2-11 away from the Chase Center, but they’ve also failed to even cover the number in 10 of those games.
Home Court the Deciding Factor for Bucks
Milwaukee let one get away on Sunday in a 97-92 loss in Houston, the Bucks’ lowest point output since a season-opening loss to the Sixers. That game was on the road, though, and the Rockets were playing with a slightly heavy heart after their coach Stephen Silas had to leave the team after finding out the news his NBA legend father Paul had passed away earlier in the day.
Now the Bucks are back at the Fiserv Forum, where they are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 vs teams with a losing road record. Milwaukee has played four of their last five on the road, with their last home contest being a 126-113 win over the Kings last Wednesday.
The Bucks have some roster concerns on Tuesday, with both Jrue Holiday and Wesley Matthews questionable due to illness, but it does look like Khris Middleton will play even after suffering what looked to be a semi-serious ankle injury vs. Houston.
Warriors at Bucks Pick
It’s hard to overlook just how bad Golden State has been on the road this season, but at the same time, Golden State has done a decent job of holding Antetokounmpo in check over the years. A lot of those numbers came earlier in Antetokounmpo’s career, though, as he’s gone for 30+ in three of the past four head-to-head.
If Holiday is out, that’s a blow to Milwaukee, but he’s also only listed as questionable. The Bucks are hungry for a bounce back after laying the egg in Houston, and they’ll get it here.
Pick: Bucks -4.5