The matchup between the Green Bay Packers and Kansas City Chiefs on Sunday night was supposed to be two division leaders led by two of the best quarterbacks in the league. While Aaron Rodgers is coming off a six-touchdown performance, Patrick Mahomes looks to have avoided serious injury but will miss the game because of a dislocated kneecap. Green Bay enters in first place in the NFC North at 6-1, while Kansas City is first in the AFC West at 5-2.
The Packers’ offense put on a show in a 42-24 win over Oakland last weekend. Rodgers had his best game by far under the new Packers coach, Matt LaFleur, throwing for 429 yards and five touchdowns and running for another. Rodgers completed 25 of 31 passes to eight different targets and finished with the first perfect passer rating of his career. The performance was even more impressive because Green Bay was missing its best wide receiver, Davante Adams, who missed the game with turf toe.
Kansas City didn’t miss Mahomes at all as it blew out the Broncos 30-6. The Chiefs ended their two-game losing streak. Veteran Matt Moore, who came in after the Mahomes injury, threw a 57-yard touchdown pass to Tyreek Hill. The defense turned in their most impressive game of the season, holding Denver to a season-low 71 yards rushing and collecting nine sacks. Moore completed 10 of 19 passes for 117 yards.
Green Bay is a 4.5-point favorite, and the total is listed as 47.5.
Packers Try To Stay In Front
The Minnesota Vikings won on Thursday night to move their record to 6-2. If the Packers want to remain alone atop the division, they will need to go into Arrowhead Stadium and come out with a win.
Rodgers didn’t have impressive numbers going into last week, as the defense and the run game were leading the Packers. With Adams out, Marquez Valdes-Scantling had a breakout game, going for 133 yards receiving during Rodgers’ huge day. The Chiefs rank 24th in total yards allowed, so expect Rodgers to continue his excellent play from last week. He is 162 of 250 on the season for 2,019 yards, 13 touchdowns and three interceptions.
Aaron Jones leads the Packers run game with 399 yards on 101 carries with eight touchdowns. Jamaal Williams has given them a nice one-two punch as he has gained 196 yards on 43 carries. They have also combined for 43 catches and four more touchdowns in the passing game.
The Packers defense has been the biggest surprise of all. The unit was carrying the team early in the season as the offense was finding its stride. They have 18 sacks, eight interceptions and have recovered five fumbles. They are allowing just under 20 points per game but have given up 398.6 yards per game as they have regressed a bit as of late.
Chiefs Look To Avoid Third Straight Home Loss
It is hard to imagine that Kansas City would lose three straight at Arrowhead Stadium. That is very much a reality now with Mahomes out and Green Bay the favorite this week.
Moore was steady in relief but is more of a game manager. He will look to avoid mistakes and use his talented group of receivers to make big plays on short receptions. Hill looks like he hasn’t missed a beat coming back from injury on his 57-yard score from Moore. Travis Kelce is the Chiefs’ leading receiver with 38 catches for 541 yards and a touchdown.
LeSean McCoy leads the Chiefs with 322 yards on 60 carries and two touchdowns. He looks to get more touches with Mahomes out. He has averaged over five yards per carry in the last two games.
The Chiefs defense stepped up when it needed to last week with Mahomes out. If they want to win against Green Bay, the Chiefs will need an equally impressive performance. This group allows 21.4 points and 398.9 yards per game.
Free Betting Pick
Kansas City will want to avoid a shootout and look for a possession game. Without Mahomes, they will utilize a lot more of the short passes that Andy Reid’s offense has always excelled at. Moore doesn’t have the athletic ability of Mahomes to extend plays with his legs, so he will need good protection if they look to throw the ball downfield.
I look for a big game from McCoy as Kansas City will want to keep Rodgers and the Packers offense off the field. Both teams will have success on the ground, but Rodgers comes up with the big play when needed as the Packers escape Kansas City with a win.
Free Pick: Green Bay -4.5
