Coming into this week six matchup, the Indiana Hoosiers are 5-0 on the season, and they are the heavy favorite over the Northwestern Wildcats. The game is set for 3:30 ET on Saturday, October 5th, at Lanny and Sharon Martin Stadium in Evanston, with BTN handling the broadcast. The over/under line is currently 41.5 points. The Wildcats are 2-2 on the season. Indiana is -14 on the point spread and -609 on the money line.
Indiana Explosive Offense
Indiana is 5-0 and ranked 16th in our power rankings. They have a 100% chance of being bowl-eligible and a 7.9% chance of winning the Big Ten. The Hoosiers are also projected to have a 39.0% chance of making the CFB playoff. This week, they are facing Northwestern on the road.
Indiana has a +35.8 average scoring margin and is 3-1 ATS this season. Their over/under record is 3-1, with their games averaging 61.8 points. This week’s line is 41.5 points, while their average over/under line has been 49.9 points.
Indiana ranks 2nd in our offensive power rankings and 3rd in scoring, with 48.8 points per game. Kurtis Rourke has 1,372 passing yards, 73.2% completion rate, and a passer rating of 130. Justice Ellison leads the ground game with 341 yards and five touchdowns, averaging 6 yards per carry. Indiana is 3rd in third-down conversions, at 57.4%.
Can Northwestern’s Defense Roar Against Indiana Despite Offensive Struggles?
Northwestern is 2-2 this season and has an 8.5% chance of becoming bowl-eligible. They are 1-1 against the spread and have an average scoring margin of +1.5 points. This week, they are 41.5-point underdogs against Indiana.
The Wildcats offense is 122nd in our power rankings, averaging 17.2 points per game. They are 27.5% on third downs and have the 128th-ranked passing attack. Cam Porter leads the ground game with 234 yards and three touchdowns, while Mike Wright has thrown for 354 yards without a touchdown.
Northwestern’s defense is 14th in the nation, allowing 15.8 points per game. They are 11th against the run, giving up 80 yards per game. However, they allowed 207 rushing yards to Washington. The Wildcats have given up 222.8 passing yards per game and have a 84.2 passer rating against them.
Bet on the Over!
Indiana is favored by -14 points in their week six matchup against Northwestern. We expect the Hoosiers to cover the spread, with a projected final score of 31-13 in their favor.
Considering the over/under line is 41.5 points, our projection of 44 total points suggests taking the over as the best play.
