Somehow we’re already heading into the Sunday slate of Week 5 of the NFL season. Of the 32 teams, there are only three left through the first four weeks that are undefeated: The New England Patriots, the San Francisco 49ers, and the Kansas City Chiefs.
The Chiefs have, unsurprisingly, had a blistering offense. Their lowest scoring output this season has been 28 points, with Kansas City scoring over 30 twice and over 40 once.
The Chiefs’ opponents on Sunday, the Indianapolis Colts, on the other hand, have a far less fiery offense. They rank only 19th in the league in yards per game and 26th in passing yards per game. The chances the Colts go on the road and beat the Chiefs in Kansas City? Slim to none. However, that’s why we bet with spreads!
Chiefs’ Offense Has Question Marks
Let’s not pretend this is a huge issue. The Chiefs are 4-0, and their offense is among the best in the league in every category. They’re first in points per game and passing yards per game. They’re also second in total yards per game. However, the running back situation has been tough to figure out all season and Sunday it will get even muddier.
The last two weeks, LeSean McCoy and Darrel Williams have carried the load, and quite admirably at that. In Week 5, Damien Williams will return. Given Andy Reid and McCoy’s previous relationship, and the fact that McCoy is averaging 5.4 yards per carry, it would be safe to assume McCoy will still get a bulk of the load.
When it comes to the receivers, there is room for concern. Tyreek Hill, their best player not named Patrick Mahomes, is out yet again this week. Last week against the Lions saw the Chiefs receivers fumble the ball three times. Sammy Watkins and Mecole Hardman both lost the football in what was a close 34-30 game.
Brissett Filling Luck’s Shoes Admirably
When Andrew Luck retired this preseason, there was widespread panic among Colts fans. They gave Brian Hoyer a three-year contract, making him one of the highest-paid back-ups in the league, and they had Chad Kelly impressing during preseason games. Jacoby Brissett, however, took the starting gig and has run with it. He is tied for the league lead in touchdown passes, with Mahomes, at 10. He is on pace for over 3,600 yards and has a completion percentage of .652.
Vegas
The over/under on this game is astronomically high. Granted, this game features the Chiefs, but this is the only game this weekend to have an over/under of over 50 points. It isn’t just over 50 either; it’s set at a whopping 56.5. I know it’s the Chiefs, but, come on. This game is also one of three on the slate to have a spread in the double digits. The Chiefs at home are understandably an 11-point favorite.
The Pick
Vegas says the game script will be 34-23 in favor of the Chiefs. That seems about reasonable. Normally I like to take the points when it’s this high, I mean it’s the NFL, any team can win any given Sunday. However, it’s the Chiefs. At home. Take the Chiefs and the under as I don’t think the Colts can keep up in an offensive shootout.
