Lightning at Islanders Game 3 Preview

After two hard-fought games, the semifinal matchup between the Lightning and the Islanders shifts to New York for Game 3. Both teams managed to win a game in Tampa, with the Lightning avoiding an 0-2 hole after a victory on Tuesday.

Here is a look at the series so far, some players to watch, and a free betting pick. Tampa Bay is favored once again even as the road team, entering Thursday at -138 while New York sits at +118.

Series Recap

Game 1 was an intense defensive struggle where scoring was few and far between. But in the end, the Islanders managed to prevail for the 2-1 lead to steal the series opener on the road. Among the top performers was goalie Semyon Varlamov, who made 30 saves on 31 shots, as well as center Mathew Barzal, who added his fourth goal of the postseason to break the scoreless tie in the second period.

After an opening game that had the two teams equal in shots, Game 2 broke more toward the home team. Center Brayden Point scored his team-leading 10th goal of the playoffs, while defenseman Victor Hedman scored his first postseason goal to give the Lightning a 4-2 win. Tampa Bay managed to win the shot battle 33-26 and scored on one of their five power-play opportunities.

Players to Watch

After a three-assist night on Tuesday, right wing Nikita Kucherov continues to increase his gaudy point total. The former MVP now has 22 postseason points, 17 via assist, as he continues to be the driving force behind Tampa’s offense.

As far as goal-scoring, Point’s goal in Game 2 was the fifth straight game he has scored in. In fact, the 25-year old has scored in seven of his last eight games overall, with six of his 10 total goals coming on the power play. One player to keep an eye on is left wing Alex Killorn, who, after six goals in a seven-game run, has failed to find the net over his past four outings.

New York would really love to get their leading point-producer, center Jean-Gabriel Pageau, on the scoresheet. The 28-year old has been held in check for the first two games of the series but still has 13 playoff points and an impressive plus-seven rating.

The goals are coming from a few different places, one of which being center Brock Nelson. Nelson scored on Tuesday, his fourth goal in the last four games, bringing his playoff total to seven. Right wing Kyle Palmieri is another one with seven goals, although he is looking to score his first of the series after netting four in the last series against Boston and three before that against Pittsburgh.

Key Stat

While the Lightning are generally considered the better team, certainly on offense, the Islanders have actually had better scoring chances this series. Through two games, New York’s expected goals rate, or xGF%, is 54.40, meaning they’re controlling the majority of the scoring chances. They also have accrued 17 high-danger scoring chances in two games, slightly ahead of Tampa Bay’s 15.

Betting Pick

Tampa Bay certainly appeared to figure some things out in Game 2, as their overall performance was much more encouraging. But now with the series shifting to Nassau Coliseum, where the Islanders went 21-4-3 in the regular season, they will have a true test.

While I would’ve loved New York to be an even bigger underdog, I still love their value. They have had the majority of scoring chances this series, avoided an injury to Varlamov, and now get two games in a building they’ve dominated in all season. I’ll throw another flier on the Islanders to take Game 3 and earn a series lead once again.

Pick: Islanders +118