The series between the 2-seed Los Angeles Clippers and the 7-seed Dallas Mavericks is well up for grabs. After L.A. won a somewhat controversial Game 1, Dallas responded with a big win in Game 2 to even up the series. Now Game 3 will tip-off tonight in Orlando as both teams are fighting for a series lead.
Here is a preview for Friday night’s game between the Clippers and Mavericks, along with a series recap and a free pick. Los Angeles is a -4.5 point favorite to reclaim control in the series.
Series Recap
Game 1 was marred in some controversy following the third quarter ejection of Mavs PF Kristaps Porzingis, with the Clippers winning 118-110. Los Angeles ran out to a quick 10-0 lead before Dallas stormed back and led by as much as 14 points during the second quarter. But the Clipper bounced back following Porzingis’ ejection, led by 29 points and 12 rebounds from SF Kawhi Leonard along with an additional 27 points from SG Paul George. The Mavericks were kept in the game thanks to PG Luka Doncic, who had a 42-9-7 stat line in his first career playoff game.
Then in Game 2, Doncic was excellent once again as the Mavs led from start to finish and tied the series with a 127-114 victory. The second-year man scored 28 points with eight rebounds and seven assists playing just nine minutes in the second half, while Porzingis also scored 23 points with seven boards. The Clippers fell despite 35 points and 10 rebounds from Leonard, although they got just 14 points from George on 4-of-17 shooting.
Keys to Victory
Los Angeles will win if: The defense plays up to their potential. The best the Clippers have looked in this series was in the opening minutes of Game 1, when they swarmed Doncic and forced him into three turnovers within the first minutes of the game. But the Mavs have largely been the better team over the duration of the series. With all-defensive players like Leonard and George, as well as PG Patrick Beverley and PF Montrezl Harrell, the Clippers have been one of the best defensive teams in the NBA this season. However, Beverley missed Game 2 and is questionable for tonight, Harrell is still trying to get back into game shape, while George is struggling to contain Doncic on the other side. L.A. will have to re-discover their defensive identity in order to beat this Mavericks team.
Dallas will win if: The supporting cast continues to shine. When the Mavs won Game 2, leading from the opening tip-off onward, a big part of their success came from Doncic and Porzingis. But if L.A. tightens things up defensively, other role players will have to play a big role in the gameplan tonight. That was the case on Wednesday, when Porzingis, SF Dorian Finney-Smith, SF Tim Hardaway Jr., and SG Seth Curry shot 9-for-18 from three-point range. The play of those Mavericks was especially pivotal in the second half, when Doncic was limited to just nine minutes of court time after getting into foul trouble. If Doncic is getting heavily guarded or gets into foul trouble again, Dallas will need the outside shooting of those players to be excellent once again.
Prediction
For this big game tonight, one team is trying to get back into their full form, while another knows exactly who they are. I like the look and the chemistry of the Mavericks right now, and with Doncic and Porzingis together on the court, the Clippers haven’t found an answer for them. Look for this to be a tight game, but the Mavs to continue their stretch of good basketball and pull off the big Game 3 win.
Pick: Mavericks +4.5
