The stage is set for the 2023 Major League Baseball All-Star Break. The game, of course, will be played on Tuesday in Seattle. Before that, the Home Run Derby will take place at T-Mobile Park.
The official start time is 5:00 pm Seattle time, 8:00 pm Eastern Time. Let’s take a look at the matchups.
#1 Luis Robert, Chicago White Sox vs. #8 Adley Rutschman, Baltimore Orioles
With Shohei Ohtani and Matt Olson not participating in the Home Run Derby, Luis Robert was the leader at the time of seeding. Robert, the White Sox slugger, has belted 25 home runs this season for a White Sox team that has been poor, at best, all season.
Robert has strikeout issues, but in the home run derby, that’s not a worry. Robert is +475 to win the event. On the other side, youngster Adley Rutschman will get the call. The Baltimore Orioles have been a pleasant surprise, and much of it is due to the production of their backstop.
Rutschman comes into the event at +1300. Both players have never been in a MLB Home Run Derby, so there is no advantage there. Robert has better pure power. He wins this first round matchup.
#4 Adolis Garcia, Texas Rangers vs. #5 Randy Arozarena, Tampa Bay Rays
If you are a St. Louis Cardinals fan, look away. The organization had both of these guys, and both got away. Garcia is a catalyst for the Texas Rangers, who have the second-best record in the American League.
Garcia has big-time power and is one of the top RBI guys in all of Major League Baseball. Garcia sits with 22 home runs as of Thursday. He is listed at +700 to win the event. Arozarena, on the other hand, is on the top team in the American League.
Randy A comes into the event with 16 home runs in 301 at bats this season. He is one of the biggest underdogs in the event, at +900. Look for the strength of Garcia to push him through in the first round.
#2 Pete Alonso, New York Mets vs. #7 Julio Rodriguez, Seattle Mariners
This is one of the toughest matchups in the first round. Pete Alonso is a Home Run Derby beast.
We know Polar Bear is going to put everything he has into this event to win it. He is listed at +300 to win it all. But his opponent is a much younger stud and the hometown favorite. Hitting from the left side is Julio Rodriguez.
Even J-Rod is listed at +550. The winner of this one is going to have a good chance to win it all. Alonso is now tied with Robert Jr with 25 home runs, while Rodriguez comes into the event with 13.
#3 Mookie Betts, Los Angeles Dodgers vs. #6 Vladimir Guerrero Jr, Toronto Blue Jays
Another really good matchup here, as the 3rd seeded Betts is actually an underdog to the 6th-seeded Guerrero. Vlad Jr is actually our bet to win this whole event. Betts is +700, and Guerrero Jr is +370. Vladdi has ridiculous power.
Betts knows how to hit and has always had sneaky power. Betts comes into the event with 23 home runs, while Vladimir sits on 13. This should be well worth the price of admission, but taking the younger, stronger Guerrero Jr. in this one.
If we are right in our first-round picks, we would see the final four as #1 Luis Robert, #4 Adolis Garcia, #7 Julio Rodriguez, and #6 Vladimir Guerrero. Guerrero and Garcia would be our picks to get to the final, with Guerrero winning it all.
Enjoy the Home Run Derby, and whoever you bet to win it all – good luck!
