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Miami Dolphins vs. Buffalo Bills

Playoff lives are at stake in Week 17 as teams make their final bids for positioning, and one game with playoff implications features the AFC East rival Miami Dolphins (10-5) versus the Buffalo Bills (12-3). While the Bills have the division secured, they play for the second overall seed while the Dolphins need a win to get in. This one will be played at Bills Stadium, with kickoff scheduled for 1:00 pm ET.

The Dolphins can technically get in if the Ravens, Browns, or Colts lose, but all three of their matchups are significantly easier than the Dolphins. Miami would prefer not to rely on those three games and would rather take care of business themselves. They come into this one having won two in a row. 

The Bills are in a bit of a dilemma. They have secured a playoff spot but have a chance to get the second seed in the AFC with a win. However, the dilemma is that the second seed no longer receives a bye in the first round, so there may be more motivated to protect their star players.  

The Bills are the slight favorites playing at home. They are -166 to win while the Dolphins’ moneyline sits at +140. The spread features Miami +3 while the over/under is 43.5.

By The Numbers

Offensively, Buffalo has been one of the best teams in the league this year. They rank 6th in scoring, averaging 29.7 points per game, and have averaged 37.3 over their last three games. Miami ranks 15th, averaging 25.2 points per game.

Defensively, it is Miami that has the advantage. In terms of scoring defense, they have been the best team in the NFL, allowing opponents just 18.8 points per game this season. Buffalo ranks 15th, allowing 23.3 points per game.

Miami Wants To Control Their Fate

Technically, there are multiple ways that Miami could get into the playoffs, but they only care about one of them. That is to take down their AFC East division rivals.

In last week’s 26-25 win over the Las Vegas Raiders, the Dolphins turned to Ryan Fitzpatrick as the game came down to the wire to secure the victory. They won’t have that luxury this week as it was announced Thursday that Fitzpatrick has tested positive for COVID-19.

As a result, it will be Tua Tagovailoa’s game to win. On the season, Tagovailoa has thrown for 1,453 yards, ten touchdowns, and two interceptions. He has also rushed for 81 yards and another three scores. 

DeVante Parker (677 yards, four touchdowns) and Mike Gesicki (656 yards, six touchdowns) have been Miami’s most important receivers through the air. 

Defensively, it has been Jerome Baker (69 tackles), Emmanuel Ogbah (9 sacks), and Xavien Howard (9 interceptions) leading the way.

Buffalo Has Decision To Make About Importance Of This Game

With the second overall seed no longer receiving a bye in the opening round, there isn’t as much incentive to push for it as in years past. As the Bills look towards matchups and momentum, there is still a lot of motivation within the team.

If they decide to go for it, it would be Josh Allen leading the way under center. This season, he has thrown for 4,320 yards, 34 touchdowns, and nine interceptions. He has also rushed for 418 yards and another eight scores.

Through the air, Stefon Diggs has been an absolute star in Buffalo this season. He has 120 receptions for 1,459 yards and eight touchdowns. Cole Beasley has also had a nice season with 967 yards receiving and four scores.

Defensively, the stat leaders include Jordan Poyer (90 tackles), Tre’Davious White (3 interceptions), and two players (Mario Addison and A.J. Klein) with five sacks apiece. 

If Stars Play, Buffalo Wins And Covers

This is a tough one to call because it depends on whether Buffalo’s stars play for the entire game or not. If they do, they have been the hottest team in the NFL over the last several weeks, and I think they would have a good chance to win and cover.

If they choose not to play their stars, Miami is the only one in a position that has to win to continue their season, so they may hold the edge simply based on motivation.

Ultimately, I feel that Buffalo will want to keep their momentum going into the playoffs, so I anticipate them going for the win. For that reason, I am taking Buffalo despite laying three points. Still, you may want to wait until closer to game time to make your decision in case they do opt to rest their starters.

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