Michigan State Spartans at Michigan Wolverines Betting Preview
It’s been a down year for the 3-4 Michigan State Spartans, but they can make their season if they can pull off an upset over the 7-0 and #4 ranked Michigan Wolverines in Saturday’s in-state rivalry game.
Both teams are coming off their bye last week, and UM has a little extra incentive, considering the Spartans have won two straight in the series.
Michigan has been favored in seven straight in this head-to-head matchup but only have a 3-4 SU mark to show for it over that span.
The Spartans were ranked #8 when they topped #6 Michigan 37-33 last year as +4 point home underdogs, but at the same time, Kenneth Walker III and his 197 yards and five TDs from last year’s game isn’t coming out of that locker room – as he’s in the NFL. The Wolverines are a huge -22.5 favorite as they try to stop the head-to-head skid.
Spartans’ Defense Overmatched Here
Michigan State was able to snap a four-game losing streak when they last played on October 15th, snagging an improbable 34-28 win at home against Wisconsin but as +7 point underdogs.
It was a nice offensive showing for the Spartans as Jalen Berger and Elijah Collins combined for 30 carries and 102 yards rushing with two TDs, while QB Payton Thorne was 21/28 for 265 and 2 TDs against a decent Badgers defense.
There are two things going against MSU following the win over the Badgers – Michigan is better both offensively and defensively vs. Wisconsin this season.
Only one opponent – Maryland – has scored more than 17 points against the Wolverines this year, and Michigan has the #6 scoring offense in the country putting up 42.7 ppg.
Revenge Time for Harbaugh
While the Ohio State game is always the one circled on the calendar for Michigan, perhaps it’s time they stopped looking past the in-state rival Spartans. MSU has won three of the last five in this series and as +13, +21, and +4.5 underdogs.
It feels like this year will be different for the Wolverines, based mainly on their ability to run the football. Blake Corum is a Heisman candidate that has run for 120+ yards in four straight games and, prior to that, had a 5-TD performance against Connecticut. RB Donovan Edwards added 16 carries for 173 yards with two TDs last time out as Michigan throttled Penn State 41-17.
Even if Michigan State stacks the box and somehow stops the Wolverines’ rushing attack, the Spartans are still very vulnerable in the secondary.
Just look at some of the past numbers – C.J. Stroud had six TD passes against the Spartans, Taulia Tagovailoa had 300+ yards passing, and Minnesota’s Tanner Morgan 23/26 passes in recent weeks against MSU.
Michigan State at Michigan Pick
We all know Michigan is going to win this game, but -22.5 points is just way too many to lay.
It’s the state championship for the Spartans, and they’ve had an extra week to prepare after being idle last Saturday. This spread should be more in the -15 range, and even that might look iffy.
Pick: Michigan State +22.5
