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Michigan State vs Michigan Betting Preview

The Paul Bunyan Trophy will be on the line this weekend during the in-state rivalry game between the Michigan State Spartans and the no. 13 Michigan Wolverines. The Wolverines are favored by 24.5 points at home, with the game’s over/under set at 53 points.

Michigan could not have asked for a better start to the season. The Wolverines began the 2020 campaign with a tricky road game against a ranked Minnesota team, but Jim Harbaugh’s team passed the test with flying colors. The Wolverines beat Minnesota 49-24, giving a skeptical fanbase a reason for optimism moving forward.

The Spartans, on the other hand, had a nightmare season opener against Rutgers. Despite out-gaining the Scarlet Knights by nearly 100 yards, MSU lost 38-27 thanks to seven turnovers. It was a dreadful debut for new MSU coach Mel Tucker, and casts doubt about whether or not the Spartans will win a game in 2020.

Rocky Start

t wasn’t all bad for MSU quarterback Rocky Lombardi last week, as he threw for over 300 yards and three touchdowns against Rutgers. Lombardi’s biggest problem was that he was responsible for three of his team’s seven turnovers, including a pair of interceptions.

Wide receiver Jayden Reed also had a mixed day with a team-high 128 receiving yards and two touchdowns, but those contributions were largely negated by two lost fumbles. Meanwhile, the Michigan State rushing attack was nowhere to be seen, as the Spartans ended the game with 50 rushing yards on 39 carries.

The turnovers and the lack of a running game figure to be big problems for the Spartans against the Michigan defense this week. Despite giving up 140 rushing yards and two touchdowns to Minnesota running back Mohamed Ibrahim, the Wolverines held the Gophers to just 3.1 yards per rush on the ground.

The UM defense also created trouble for Minnesota quarterback Tanner Morgan, and they will likely make it difficult for Lombardi to throw for 300 yards for a second straight week.

Here We Go, Joe

Offensively, the Wolverines had some questions heading into the season, particularly at quarterback. Joe Milton has quieted some of that concern after his performance against Minnesota, completing 15 of his 22 passes for 225 yards and a touchdown.

Milton didn’t push the ball down the field too much, but he didn’t need to because the Wolverines did most of their damage on the ground. Hassan Haskins and Zach Charbonnet combined for 152 yards while Milton chipped in 52 yards of his own.

The Michigan State defense wasn’t nearly as bad as the 38 points allowed to Rutgers indicates. Three of the touchdowns the Spartans gave up came off drives of under 30 yards, thanks to turnovers by the MSU offense. In the end, the Spartans conceded less than 300 total yards and forced three turnovers in their season opener.

Avoid the Over Correction

The line for this game seems a little inflated based on last week’s results. It’s best not to overreact too much to a season opener. Michigan still has a relatively inexperienced quarterback, while the Michigan State defense played better last week than the numbers show. Granted, it’ll take a lot for the Spartans to win this game, but bet on Michigan State to beat the 24.5-point spread.

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