The Milwaukee Brewers hope that the success from their recent 5-1 home stand translates to the road as they begin a three-game series with the Boston Red Sox on Friday night. Milwaukee has built up a three-game lead in the NL Central and gets to square off against a rookie pitcher in the opener.
Boston is in a tough spot being in last place in the AL East but also still just 3.5 GB in the wild card race. The Red Sox have to decide if they are going to be buyers or sellers at Tuesday’s trade deadline, and this weekend’s results will go a long way in determining that. Milwaukee is still a -168 road favorite on Friday night.
Can Milwaukee Bats Stay Hot?
The Brewers averaged seven runs per game during their recent home stand, a number that is more impressive considering it was deflated by a 2-0 shutout loss to the Rockies last Sunday. Milwaukee belted out 12 HRs in their five wins, a power surge they hope continues on the road.
Milwaukee was just 2-4 the last time they went on the road in visits to Minnesota and San Francisco. That gives Boston some value, but Hunter Renfroe is also red hot for the Brewers with four HR and 10 RBI in his last six games, while Rowdy Tellez had a two HR game in Wednesday’s victory over the Twins.
Even if the Brewers bats cool off a bit, they still have Brandon Woodruff (7-3, 4.01 ERA) on the hill Friday night. Woodruff is 3-0 since returning from the IL and has held opponents to two ER or less in four of his five starts since June 28th.
Red Sox on a Tough Stretch
Boston’s 4-2 win over the Guardians on Thursday salvaged their hopes for the time being. The Red Sox could still become sellers at the trade deadline but are only 3.5 out of the wild card – plus, this is a team that can get hot, as evidenced by their 20-6 record in June.
What hurts Boston is just bad timing. They are trying to show ownership they are still contenders but while also having to deal with injuries to Trevor Story and Rafael Devers – and during a visit from first-place Milwaukee followed by a trip to face first-place Houston.
Another thing hurting the Sox’s timing is that Brayan Bello (0-2, 10.50 ERA) is up in the rotation Friday night. He’s got a bright future, but the rookie has allowed 14 ER over 12.0 IP in the first three starts of his MLB career.
Brewers vs. Red Sox Pick and Prediction
One positive thing going for Boston is that Woodruff is 3-3 with a 5.26 ERA on the road compared to his much more dominant 5-0, 2.08 splits at American Family Field. That is equalized by Bello’s struggles, though, and the rookie hasn’t yet pitched out of the fourth inning, which puts a lot of pressure on the Boston bullpen.
The Red Sox need this win, as they want to keep their roster intact (or add players) and make a run in the second half. It just might not be doable facing what seems like an insurmountable challenge in the pitching matchup.
Pick: Brewers-1.5 (-115)
