Division leaders will square off in an interleague battle as the Minnesota Twins (40-39, 1st in AL Central) take on the Atlanta Braves (50-27, 1st in NL East) Monday night. The Braves will host this one at Truist Park, with first pitch scheduled for 7:20 pm ET.
The Braves are the favorites in this one playing at home. They are -190 to win, while the Twins’ moneyline sits at +160. The runline features Minnesota +1.5 (-122), and the over/under for total runs is 8.5.
Twins Try To Stay Above .500
At 40-39, the Minnesota Twins have the worst record of any division leader in all of baseball. Still, as they sit with a two-game lead over the Cleveland Guardians in the AL Central, the Twins will look to stay above .500 on the road, where they are 17-20 this season.
Taking the ball for the Twins in this one is 33-year-old righty Sonny Gray. In 15 games, Gray is 4-1 with a 2.56 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, and he has 84 strikeouts in 81 innings. He has taken no-decisions in three straight starts, giving up six earned runs over a combined 14 innings of work.
Offensively, the Twins rank 21st in the majors, averaging just 4.28 runs per game (4.11 on the road). Leading the offense is Byron Buxton, who despite hitting just .206/.304/.440 has a team-leading 13 home runs.
One of the problems for the Twins’ offense is their lack of contact. The Twins have five players with double-digit home runs, and the highest batting average of the five is .216.
Braves Looks To Stay Hot
With the best record in the National League, and the second-best in all of baseball, the Atlanta Braves will look to stay hot as they begin their series with the Twins. In their last 10 games, the Braves have only lost one, and they are 24-15 at Truist Park this season.
The Braves rank third in runs scored this season, averaging 5.54 runs per game. In the last week, Matt Olson might be the hottest hitter in baseball, hitting .286/.375/1.048 with five home runs and nine runs batted in. On the season, he has a team-leading 25 home runs and 60 runs batted in.
Aside from Olson, Ozzie Albies (18 HR, 55 RBI), Ronald Acuna Jr (16 HR, 47 RBI, 67 R, 35 SB), Marcell Ozuna (15 HR, 36 RBI), and Austin Riley (13 HR, 38 RBI) have all had great seasons.
On the bump Monday will be 24-year-old righty, Spencer Strider. In 15 games, he is 8-2 with a 3.93 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, and he has 136 strikeouts in 84.2 innings. Strider was especially dominant in his last start, allowing just one earned run and striking out nine in six innings against the Phillies.
Take The Twins On The Runline
Looking at the trends, the Twins are 4-1 in their last five games, but they are just 3-9 in their last 12 against the Braves. In their last five games against NL East teams, they are just 1-4.
For the Braves, they are 10-1 in their last 11 games and 9-1 in their last 10 home games. In 9 of their last 12 games, the OVER has hit for Atlanta.
There is a reason that the Braves are the favorites in this one, as they have been absolutely dominant as of late. Still, Sonny Gray has quietly put together a solid season and is crafty enough as a veteran to keep this one close.
It wouldn’t be shocking if the Braves win, but there is a lot of value in taking the Twins at +1.5 (-122) on the runline.
