The 1-3 Dallas Cowboys play host to the 0-4 New York Giants on Sunday at 4:25 in this NFC East battle, each team looking for momentum to build upon.
While the records may indicate two even teams, the line (Cowboys -9) does not. Dallas has explosive talent on the offensive side of the ball; and the Giants don’t seem to have the firepower to keep up in a potential shootout.
No D in Dallas
Dallas’ problem to start the year has been on the defensive side of the ball. Mike Nolan’s unit has let up 146 points in four games, the most in the NFL, and 430 yards per game which is third in the league.
The yards allowed in particular are troubling. Seattle is giving up the most yards per game in the NFL, but that’s because they are going up early and forcing teams to go one-dimensional. The Cowboys are the inverse, giving up points in bunches and playing from behind in every game.
Last week was the worst yet for Dallas, allowing 49 points and 508 yards to Cleveland – 305 of which came on the ground.
The defensive woes need to be fixed for the Cowboys, who remain very much in the mix in what is looking to be another weak year for the NFC East. Luckily, Dallas has a chance to get right, at least for a week, as the hapless Giants come to town.
Nothing Going for New York
The Giants are one of the league’s worst offenses, the perfect recipe for Dallas’ struggling defense. Second-year QB Daniel Jones is at the helm as New York comes into Week 5 averaging a shockingly abysmal 11.8 points per game. This Giants team has scored only three touchdowns all year.
Without a star on this team, it’s easier to trust the Cowboys struggling defense to stop New York’s atrocious offense. That’s been the strategy for every Giants opponent thus far.
If the Giants are going to get points on the board, it would behoove them to attack this Cowboys secondary. Dallas has been especially susceptible to deep passes so far this season. The problem with New York is that Jones comes in at 27th in the league in attempted passes of 20+ yards, per Pro Football Focus.
New York has not shown a proclivity for going deep, thanks to a combination of poor pass protection, play-calling and probably more importantly a lack of skill-position weapons.This plays into Dallas’ favor, and with significantly more talent on offense, one would expect them to pull away in this matchup.
Dallas is 6-0 overall and ATS in the last three years against the Giants. While your inclination may be to take the nine points because it’s a division matchup, I’d lean towards taking the team who has shown the ability to score points and move the ball.
Prescott and the Offense are the Difference
QB Dak Prescott is off to a scorching start in the stat book (1,690 yards passing) in large part because of the hole his defense continuously puts him in. The Cowboys’ defensive deficiencies aside, this is still a Dallas team loaded on offense.
With Pro Bowl RB Ezekiel Elliott, a trio of WRs (Amari Cooper, Ceedee Lamb, and Michael Gallup) along with emerging TE Dalton Schultz, the Giants defense could be in trouble.
The Giants offense cannot hang with Dallas if the game becomes high scoring. It’s this difference that lends itself to taking the Cowboys to cover and advance to 2-3 on this young season.
The pick: Cowboys -9
