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NFL Super Bowl 53 Betting Pick and Prediction

It’s been a long two weeks, but the wait for Super Bowl 53 between the New England Patriots and Los Angeles Rams is almost over. The Patriots remain a 2.5-point favorite over the Rams with an over/under of 56.5 points.

While most will agree the Rams got some lucky breaks from the officials in the NFC Championship Game, it’s hard to argue that they haven’t earned their way to the Super Bowl. Remember, this team started the season 8-0 and finished the regular season 13-3 before managing to overcome a 13-0 deficit against the Saints in the NFC Championship Game.

Meanwhile, the Patriots almost slow-played their entire season. They lost a couple of games early in the regular season and a couple more games late in the regular season. However, they have kicked things into gear during the playoffs, beating a pair of 12-4 teams to get back to the Super Bowl for the third straight season.

The Legend Continues

As mentioned, Tom Brady and company have been at the top of their game during their wins over the Chargers and Chiefs. The familiar faces of Julian Edelman, Rob Gronkowski, and James White have all shown up and played important roles. Of course, running back Sony Michel has almost stolen the show with his 242 yards over two games, helping to take a lot of pressure off Brady.

One thing the Patriots have done in both games is getting off to a fast start. They’ve scored on their opening drive and gotten off to double-digit leads in the 1st half. Doing this has taken both the Chargers and Chiefs away from their game plans to the point that both teams essentially abandoned the run, making this easier on the New England defense. During those two games, the Patriots have allowed a total of 60 yards rushing on 22 carries, which is typically a winning formula.


Todd Gurley has become a huge talking point heading into the Super Bowl. He missed two games late in the regular season due to a knee injury and then got just five touches in the NFC Championship Game. However, Gurley has insisted that he’s healthy, and Sean McVay has indicated he’ll be sure to use Gurley more in the Super Bowl. McVay could overcorrect his mistake from a couple of weeks ago and give the Patriots a large dose of Gurley, who’s capable of being the best player on the field.

On the other side of the field, New England will need to have an answer for Aaron Donald. Brady hasn’t been sacked in either playoff game despite the Chargers and Chiefs both having great pass rushers. However, Donald is an interior player, so he lines up closer to Brady and can disrupt the New England offense quickly if the Patriots don’t have a plan on every play for how to block him.

All About the Upside

Admittedly, the Patriots are the safer bet in this game. However, with difference makers like Gurley and Donaldson, the Rams have a little higher upside and have played at a championship level with great consistency this season. While Brady and company are 5-3 in the Super Bowl, their average margin of victory in those wins is less than four points, so they typically play close games. With that in mind, bet on the Rams to either beat the spread or win Super Bowl 53.

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