NHL Betting Preview: 2023 Western Conference Semifinals: Seattle Kraken vs Dallas Stars
The Seattle Kraken and Dallas Stars gave us a show in Game One. The Kraken roared to a 4-2 lead in the first period, put Joe Pavelski near-singlehandedly willed the game to overtime, his four-goal performance in his first game back from a concussion a performance for the ages.
Yanni Gourde scored the game winner for Seattle as 12:17 of the overtime session to give the Kraken a 1-0 series lead. Needing to win to avoid an 0-2 series deficit, the Stars will look to bounce back at home on Thursday.
Puck drop is at 9:40 PM ET, and the game will air on TNT.
Seattle Taking Advantage with Physical Play
Much like they did in the first round, Seattle set the tempo by hitting everything that moved in Game One. The Kraken outhit Dallas 47-19, exceeding their 40.82 hits/60 pace so far this postseason and nearly doubling their regular season pace of 21.77 hits/60.
“Every win, especially right now, you need everyone going, everyone chipping in and everyone elevating their game,” Kraken forward and alternate captain Jaden Schwartz said. “We rely on everybody. We need to and we like our depth and we’ve done a good job.”
Eleven Seattle skaters recorded a point in Game One, and 19 players have recorded a point in the postseason, the highest number of any remaining team.
Pavelski’s Performance Squandered, What’s Next for Big D?
While Pavelski shined in Game One, the rest of the roster was mostly along for the ride. Jason Robertson, Tyler Seguin, and Roope Hintz were all held without a point and were a combined -4. Jake Oettinger was off his normally stellar form as well, his five goals against the most he’s allowed in a single playoff game in his career (16 games).
“Epic. Epic. Ashamed we wasted it and didn’t win,” Stars head coach Pete DeBoer said of Pavelski’s play. “That’s on our group because, you know, he more than do his part. He tried to drag us to a win.”
All things considered, Dallas didn’t play poorly but had a few unfortunate bounces cost the team. The Stars held the lead in expected goals (xGF) throughout most of the game, finishing at 3.26 to Seattle’s 2.78 in all situations.
All goals for both clubs were scored at even strength, but even after going 0-for-2 on the power play in the second-round opener, Dallas is still at 34.8% with the man advantage in the playoffs, which could be an area to attack in Game Two.
Probable Goaltenders
SEA – Philipp Grubauer: 5-3, 2.57 GAA, .921 save percentage
DAL – Jake Oettinger: 4-3, 2.35 GAA, .921 save percentage
Injury Report
SEA: Jake McCann (upper body – OUT), Andre Burakovsky (lower body – OUT)
DAL: NONE
Game Two Odds and Pick
Despite winning Game One and having a 4-1 record on the road this postseason, Seattle is the underdog at +165 on the moneyline (Dallas is -195). The over/under is at 5.5, with early action leaning towards the under (-130).
Including the regular season, all four meetings between the Kraken and Stars went over 5.5 goals (all saw at least seven goals scored), and three of the four went to overtime. While we expect Dallas to win Game Two, the betting value isn’t quite there at -195. Instead, we recommend taking Seattle +1.5 goals on the puck line (-165) with the anticipation of another close game.
