Wednesday’s forecast in Cincinnati calls for scattered clouds and temperatures in the mid-70s. First pitch from Great American Ball Park is set for 1:10 PM ET. BSOH is carrying this one on TV.
The Reds are favored at -131, while the money line odds have the Pirates at +111. Wednesday’s over/under line is sitting at 9.5 runs. Luis L. Ortiz is starting for the Pirates, and the Reds are going with Graham Ashcraft. Cincinnati is 4th in the NL Central, while the Pirates are 3rd.
Struggling Pirates Look to Break Road Slump Against Reds with Ortiz on the Mound,
The Pittsburgh Pirates are 38-41 overall and 8.5 games behind the Brewers in the NL Central. They are 11-11 in the division and have a series record of 10-11-4. The Pirates are 19-20 at home and 19-21 on the road. Today, they are on the road against the Reds and are 13-15 as road underdogs. Their over/under record is 38-40, and the over/under line for today’s game is 9.5 runs. The Pirates have an average run line record of 42-37 and have a negative run differential. Luis L. Ortiz is getting the start for the Pirates and has a record of 3-2 and an ERA of 3.45. He most recently pitched on June 21st and gave up 3 earned runs in 4 innings of work.
The Pirates offense has been struggling this season, with their 3.8 runs per game at home ranking 28th in the league. Overall, they are 21st in batting average and strikeout 9 times per game, which is 24th. Bryan Reynolds is hitting .280 for the Pirates and has 13 homers and 46 RBIs. He is also on a tear, hitting .433 over his last 8 games. Oneil Cruz is hitting .243 with 11 homers and 34 RBIs. The Pirates average combined run total for games this season is 8.6 runs, and the over has hit in the last two Pirates games. This is just the fourth time this season that the over/under line for a Pirates game has been set at 9.5 runs.
Reds Look to Break Slump Against Pirates with Ashcraft on the Mound,
The Reds trail the Brewers by 9.5 games in the NL Central and are 37-42 overall. They are 20-22 at home and 17-20 on the road. Cincinnati is 8-15-2 in series this season and are 3-7 across their last 10 games. Today, they are taking on the Pirates, and the over/under line is set at 9.5, which is higher than their combined run average of 8.4. The Reds are 13-7 when the line is set at 9.5 runs and have a 34-42 over/under record overall.
Graham Ashcraft is 4-3 with a 5.05 ERA this season and has a WHIP of 1.46. He has three quality starts and will be facing a Pirates offense that is 17th in scoring at 4.3 runs per game. Ashcraft is going up against a Pittsburgh offense that is hitting .271 against him this season. The Reds have a run differential of +0.1 overall and are 24-13 against the run line on the road compared to 18-24 at home.
Pirates Poised for Upset: Bet on +111 Money Line and Over 9.5 Runs,
We see the Pirates as a good value bet today, with them being on the road and still getting +111 on the money line. Our predicted final score is 6-5 in favor of the Pirates, which gives us some room to take the money line or the over, as the line is currently sitting at 9.5 runs.
Looking at some of the player props, Graham Ashcraft is projected to finish with five strikeouts, which has him 17th among starters today. As for the Pirates, they are projected to finish with 10 strikeouts, which is the second most among today’s starters.
