Sports gambling, just as any type of gambling, has many theories. Everyone seems to have their own can’t-miss, sure-fire strategy, system, or process. Some make sense, some don’t, but the one thing they have in common is none will work every time. Nothing is foolproof when it comes to sports gambling.
What successful gamblers attempt to do is use as much pertinent information as possible to find the best value in a wager. Risk vs Reward becomes more important than Home vs Away. One of the ways they do this is to bet trends. Whether it is profitable or not depends on how it is employed.
Betting Trends
The betting trends are the volume of wagers placed with a sportsbook on one team versus another. Sometimes referred to as “betting percentages,” the betting trends are the number of wagers made and not the amount of money wagered. Using this information, gamblers are able to see which side of a wager is receiving most of the action. You can find this information from any sports gambling website or app. Remember, you are trying to make the smartest wager you can and knowing where all the action is should be your first step.
Fade the Public
Betting against the public is one way of betting sports trends. Also called “fading the public” or “Contrarian Betting,” betting against the public is one of the simplest and most popular forms of trend betting. The logic is easy to follow: always wager against the general public. Whichever team the general gambling public has placed more wagers on, bet on the other team.
When the public loads up on one side of a wager, oddsmakers are forced to move their lines to attract money on the other team to reduce the sportsbook’ risk. This influx of new cash can cause the betting marketplace to act irrationally and you can get an extra two or even three points on a particular wager. And this, over the long haul, will result in a 4%-6% increase in your winning percentage. It works in every sport and is a reliable way to bet trends as long as you are consistently employing it.
Reverse Line Movement
This betting trend is a little more complicated than fading the public. This strategy looks for betting line movements that contradict the public betting percentages. When the wagers and hence the money are on one side of the wager but the line moves even more in that teams favor. It’s an odd phenomenon but happens quite often due to large wagers being placed by a few people.
For example, the Philadelphia Eagles are -14 favorites over the Jacksonville Jaguars at +14. You learn that 80% of the action is being placed on Philadelphia, however, you notice the lines have moved against Philly, making them a -13. This is the dead give-away that a few very large wagers, commonly known as “sharp money” or “smart money,” have come in on Jacksonville. With this information, you’d quickly search for a sportsbook still offering Jacksonville at +14.
This system is very successful because you are, in fact, betting with the smart money or sharps. The gamblers placing these large wagers are the professionals and/or the syndicates who have done their homework and don’t lose too often. Yeah, that’s a good crew to bet with.
Profitability
Both of these types of betting trends have their advantages. However, it is important to note that you must be very consistent when using these systems. Betting trends is simply interpreting information to inform your wager. In order to fade the public and be successful, you will have to consistently be able to identify when you have that opportunity.
The same can be said for playing reverse line movements as well. You must be able to identify your spots very quickly to get in on the action. Once you’ve mastered these processes and continue to employ them every time you can, you will be able to be very successful with your sports wagering.
Losing Cause
We’ve mentioned that you must be consistent win employing these types of betting trends systems. This means it is important to your bottom line that you wager the same amount of money at a consistent rate. These systems require a long game and, while they will be profitable from time to time, they will not always come in.
The success comes only after a certain amount of time. And they will come in if you remain consistent. The best way to remain consistent is to practice. You are going to have to learn to navigate certain websites quickly, pick out the relevant information, and field the wager on other online sportsbooks.
Just identifying a reverse line movement is difficult, especially for a rookie. If you do not practice and learn when to fade the public or when a reverse line movement has come, you are simply playing a guessing game. And a guessing game in sports gambling is always a losing cause.
