The last football game in 2018 will be Monday’s Taxslayer Gator Bowl between the NC State Wolfpack and the no. 19 Texas A&M Aggies. The game will be in Jacksonville with the Aggies listed as 7-point favorites over NC State.
For NC State, a win in the Gator Bowl would mean their first 10-win season since 2002. At 9-3, the Wolfpack have matched last year’s win total and are playing in a bowl game for the fifth consecutive year under Dave Doeren. Despite a little slump in the middle of the season when they played the top teams in the ACC, the Wolfpack finished the season with three straight wins and plenty of momentum.
Meanwhile, Texas A&M put together a solid 8-4 campaign in their first season under Jimbo Fisher. It’s worth noting that two of those losses came against Alabama and Clemson, the two best teams in the country. The Aggies also closed their regular season with three straight wins, including that 7-overtime classic against LSU.
Are We Running or Not?
The biggest matchup in this game will be at the line of scrimmage when A&M has the ball. The Aggies are led by running back Trayveon Williams, who ran for over 1,500 yards this season, gaining six yards per carry. Of course, one area where NC State excelled this year was at stopping the run. The Wolfpack allowed just 3.5 yards per carry this season. Even Clemson and Syracuse, the top rushing teams NC State faced in the ACC this year, were both held to under 100 yards rushing against the Wolfpack defense.
That will make A&M quarterback Kellen Mond a huge X-factor. Mond completed just 58% of his passes this year, but he also faced a slew of elite defensive teams. Despite a lack of accuracy at times, Mond had some big games down the stretch. He also has the athleticism to make an impact in the running game, which could be useful against NC State’s stout front-7.
Golden Arm
While the Wolfpack are good at defending the run, they’re not so effective running the ball themselves. While Reggie Gallaspy gained over 1,000 yards this season, the Wolfpack as a team averaged just 3.9 yards per carry this season. Fortunately, they have a quarterback who can carry them in Ryan Finley. The senior completed 68% of his passes for nearly 3,800 yards and 24 touchdowns this season. More importantly, he grew accustomed to carrying the NC State offense.
Of course, Finley and the Wolfpack didn’t face too many high-end defenses this season. Texas A&M may be the best defensive team NC State will face this season outside of Clemson. Finley had his worst game of the season against Clemson with the Wolfpack only managing seven points. Defensively, the Aggies have held up well against some of the best offensive teams in the country, so she won’t be intimidated by anything the Wolfpack throw at them.
A Thin Line
On paper, there isn’t much to separate these two teams. However, Texas A&M is better than their record would suggest. The Aggies are the more athletic team and the more balanced team. They will win at the line of scrimmage and win the game comfortably. Bet on Texas A&M to cover the 7-point spread in the Gator Bowl.
