The No. 11 Texas Longhorns are in Morgantown, WVa., to take on the West Virginia Mountaineers in Saturday afternoon game. Both teams come into this game at 3-1 and having a bye last week to prepare, but the Longhorns are still 10.5-point favorites on the road in what should be a rather hostile environment.
Although these are two teams with the same record in the same conference, don’t let that fool you into thinking that these teams are even somewhat evenly matched. Texas has rolled two inferior opponents and has a win over Oklahoma State two weeks ago while West Virginia has struggled to beat teams like James Madison and Kansas. Their only loss comes to Missouri, which stomped the Mountaineers 38-7.
Texas Offense vs. West Virginia Defense
The Texas offense, led by Sam Ehlinger, should just roll here. Texas has had no real problems scoring in any of its games, and it even gave away 14 to 17 points in its only loss to LSU, where it still scored 38 points in that game. Ehlinger has been terrific all season, and I expect nothing less in this game.
While the running back situation for the Longhorns has been injury-riddled, they have still been able to establish a solid run game with Ehlinger, Keaontay Ingram, and Roschon Johnson, the former quarterback. In West Virginia’s only loss, they allowed over 200 yards on the ground to Missouri, which is not as talented up front as these Longhorns.
While we are still unsure about Collin Johnson’s status, we know that Devin Duvernay and Brennan Eagles are guys that should be able to produce at a high level against a West Virginia secondary that lacks talent on the Texas WRs’ level.
West Virginia Offense vs. Texas Defense
This is where the spread will be covered or not in this game, and it all comes down to the West Virginia passing attack and its ability to create plays. Texas is a very talented team, but it has a few injuries in the secondary that makes it extremely vulnerable to getting beat down the field. Can West Virginia capitalize on this enough to score at a high rate?
I don’t think that the Mountaineers and quarterback Austin Kendall will struggle to move the ball here, but I think that they will lack the explosive plays that get them on the board in a hurry. This offense has no consistent home-run threats at WR or RB, and I think it will be really difficult to constantly drive down the field on a team that is more talented than them.
Pick
I like the Longhorns to cover the 10.5 points in this matchup because their offense should produce too many explosive plays for the Mountaineers to keep up with. That being said, I do think both teams score a good amount here, so I also like the over 61 in this spot.
