The Valero Alamo Bowl stage is set with a pair of brand names. The Texas Longhorns make the short trip down to San Antonio, Texas, where they will meet the Washington Huskies at 9:00 p.m. ET Thursday at the Alamodome.
The Longhorns (8-4) looked to have a promising season after pushing Alabama to the final buzzer, but then Texas lost some questionable games down the stretch. The Huskies (10-2) have won six straight, and if it weren’t for a slip-up against Arizona State may have played themselves into a Pac-12 Championship and the College Football Playoff.
Alas, these two teams meet for the final game of 2022. The Longhorns are favored by three points with an over/under of 67.5 points. The Longhorns are -160 on the moneyline, while the Huskies are +135.
Who will Texas go to?
The Longhorns will be without star running back Bijan Robinson, who declared for the draft, and backup Roschon Johnson and linebacker DeMarvion Overshown. The first two injuries take away from the 27th-ranked rushing attack at 199.6 yards per game.
Texas was 30th in only turning it over five times and ranked 20th in scoring 35.7 points per game. The Longhorns were 36th in total offense at 430.3 yards per game and 63rd in passing for 230.8 yards per game.
Defensively they were 29th in holding teams to 21.2 points per game and 50th in total defense in allowing 362.0 yards per game. But they were 88th against the pass, allowing 239.0 yards per game, and 83rd with nine turnovers forced.
Washington ready to throw
That will play into the Huskies’ hands. Southpaw quarterback Michael Penix Jr. should have been a Heisman finalist after leading the country’s best passing attack. The Huskies threw for 376.7 yards per game and were second in total offense at 521.7 yards per game. They were fourth in scoring 40.8 points per game, and their two giveaways was tied for fourth.
Defensively, the Huskies were quite good against the run. They held teams to 127.0 rushing yards per game, which ranked 33rd. But they were 63rd in allowing 26.3 points per game and 57th in allowing 368.8 yards of offense per game, largely because they were 90th against the pass in allowing 241.8 yards per game. Their seven takeaways was tied for 104th.
Texas/Washington Betting Prediction
The Longhorns were 8-4 against the spread and 6-6 on over/unders this season. The Huskies were 7-5 against the spread and 8-3-1 on over/unders. The public shows 59% of bets on the Huskies and 55% on the over.
It’s a destination game for the Huskies, while Texas gets a short trip, so the “care” factor favors Washington.
This game is going to come down to the two quarterbacks – Penix and Texas’ Quinn Ewers – and who will secure the coveted turnovers. With a full complement of weapons, the Huskies’ attack should prevail and cover +3 and win outright at +135.