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UFC on ESPN+ 12: Moicano vs. Jung Betting Preview

After a break following the fantastic card two weeks ago, the UFC is back with Fight Night 153 in Greenville, S.C. on Saturday night. The main event features Renato Moicano and Chan Sung Jung, also known as “Korean Zombie.” The main card lost a fight, with the Font vs. Lineker fight being canceled, but there are still three other fights on the main card.

Moicano vs. Korean Zombie

Moicano is a -200 favorite in this bout vs. Jung, and I think that I will be backing the dog here. Moicano is probably the better fighter, but I think that the five-round style of this fight is exactly what Jung needs.

Korean Zombie was a major name coming into the UFC, and his style was very electric. However, the South Korean put a halt to his career with mandatory military service. After this hiatus, Zombie has looked fine, but he is not the young and budding star he was before losing to Jose Aldo in a title fight in 2013.

That being said, I think that he is someone that will be able to take advantage of Moicano’s lack of elite endurance and eventually capitalize. The line here is mostly because I do think that Moicano is likely to be the better fighter in the first two rounds. Maybe Zombie can unleash some of the young talent that he once possessed, but I am worried about the start of this fight, and the line isn’t a bad one.

The third round here is the deciding round, and I think that Jung wins the fight if he can secure the third round. That will be a tough ask after likely losing the first two, but I think that the value is there at +160.

Barberena vs. Brown

Bryan Barberena is a -270 favorite in this spot, and I really like the spot for him, especially by eventual stoppage. The line is not great for Barberena, a fighter who is not incredibly skilled and highly-touted by any means, but I think that he has the dog in him to attack Randy Brown.

Brown is a long and rangy fighter that likes to pick guys apart, and I think that Barerena will attack Brown quickly. If Barerena can turn this into the dog fight that I think he can, I think he will quickly overwhelm Brown and eventually put him away.

Lee vs. De La Rosa

Andrea Lee has proven to be a really strong fighter with not a ton of major weaknesses, and the same cannot be said for her opponent. Montana De La Rosa is a BJJ black belt and is someone who could be dangerous if Lee were to get into bad situations.

The issue for De La Rosa is that I see Lee as the much better striker and a much stronger fighter. De La Rosa wants to be able to get Lee’s back and use her BJJ background to eventually submit Lee, but I just don’t think that she will be able to get Lee into that position.

If you are going to rely on wrestling and ground game, you need to be a threat to your opponent with your strength, and I don’t believe that De La Rosa’s strength can match Lee on the ground. This should lead to Lee controlling the fight from start to finish. I like Lee a lot here at -210.

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