The New York Liberty return to Barclays Center on Thursday night to host the Los Angeles Sparks. Tipoff is set for 7:00PM ET. New York is 11-5 and sits at the top of the Eastern Conference. Los Angeles is 5-12 and in last place in the West. This is the start of an eight-game homestand for the Liberty.
This is the third meeting between these teams this season. The Liberty won the first two matchups at home by double digits, 93-80 and 98-88. The Sparks responded with a 94-88 win in the most recent meeting on August 28, 2024. New York has won eight of the last ten overall against L.A. and covered the spread in eight of those games as well.
The Sparks are coming off a close loss to Chicago. They beat Indiana before that to snap a four-game losing streak. The Liberty are looking to snap a two-game skid after losses to Atlanta and Phoenix. They are 6-1 at home this year and will try to bounce back against one of the lowest-ranked defensive teams in the league.
Oddsmakers have New York listed as a 10.5-point home favorite. The total for the game is set at 170.5. Both teams have trended toward overs lately, with Los Angeles going over in 10 of 17 games and New York doing the same in 10 of 16. The total has gone over in six of the last ten head-to-head matchups.
Liberty Preview – Trying to Fix Defensive Issues
New York started the season 9-0 but has gone just 2-5 since. In that stretch, they are allowing 90.7 points per game. Opponents are shooting over 52% in the last two games. In Sunday’s loss to Atlanta, the Dream scored 62 points in the paint and shot nearly 53% from the field.
The Liberty allowed 106 points to Phoenix in the game before that. Sabrina Ionescu has struggled from the floor during the slump, making just 11 of her last 51 shots. Natasha Cloud has been more consistent. She had 20 points against Atlanta and continues to be their most steady guard in recent games.
Despite the defensive struggles, New York still ranks fifth in points allowed for the season. They lead the league in limiting free throws, allowing only 11.6 makes per game. But their rebounding has slipped. They are now ranked last in total rebounds and second-to-last in offensive rebounding allowed. That’s made it tough to get stops.
On offense, the Liberty average 81.8 points per game and shoot 43.6% from the field, which ranks top five in the league. They also move the ball well with 20.5 assists per game. They are top three in free throw percentage and average over 9 made threes per game. If the defense can hold up, the offense usually delivers at home.
Sparks Preview – Looking for Consistency on the Road
The Sparks enter Thursday with just five wins in 17 games. They are 4-5 on the road, with their most recent win coming at Indiana. In their last outing, they gave up 92 points in a loss to Chicago, allowing 68.8% shooting in the fourth quarter. That erased a good offensive game where two players topped 20 points.
Dearica Hamby continues to lead the Sparks. She had 20 points and 10 rebounds against the Sky and is averaging a double-double on the season. Kelsey Plum added 22 and has scored at least 20 in three straight games. The Sparks lean on those two to carry the offense each night.
Los Angeles ranks 8th in scoring with 81.8 points per game. They are top five in field goal percentage but near the bottom in turnovers and rebounding. Their defense allows 79.9 points and ranks last in both total rebounds and offensive boards allowed. That has made it tough to close games even when they lead late.
The Sparks are also giving up 9.3 made threes per game, which ranks last in the league. Opponents are shooting 33.4% from beyond the arc, and the Sparks don’t have enough size or length to contest consistently. If they fall behind early, it’s hard for them to get stops or take over a game with defense.
Betting Prediction
The spread is large, but New York has covered in six of their last seven home wins against the Sparks. The Liberty have struggled on defense lately, but the Sparks have just one win in their last six games. New York should get back on track at home, where they are 6-1 this season and scoring over 83 points per game.
The total is set at 170.5, and both teams are trending over. New York has allowed 90+ points in three of their last five, and the Sparks don’t have the defensive tools to slow down the Liberty backcourt. Look for the Liberty to win by 12 to 15 points and the total to go over. Their defense may still allow enough points to push the total high.
Pick: New York -10.5
