The Home Run Derby returns Monday night as eight hitters battle for the title in Philadelphia. First pitch is set for 8 p.m. ET, and the event will stream on Netflix.
This year’s Derby has a new format that could change the outcome.
Instead of hitting for a set amount of time, each player gets a fixed number of swings. There are 20 swings in the first round and 15 swings in both the semifinals and finals. If a player hits a home run on the last swing, that player keeps hitting until a swing stays in the park.
The four players with the most home runs in Round 1 move on. From there, the semifinals become head-to-head matchups based on first-round totals.
With fewer swings available, every miss becomes more costly.
Three Players Worth Watching
Jac Caglianone
Caglianone may have the highest ceiling in the field. His power is not a question. If he gets into a rhythm early, he can post one of the top totals in the opening round. The challenge will be avoiding empty swings under the new rules.
Bryce Harper
Harper gets to hit in his home park with the Philadelphia crowd behind him. He has been on this stage before and knows how to handle the attention. If he reaches the final, the crowd could become part of the story.
Junior Caminero
Caminero came close to winning the Derby last year before falling in the championship round. That experience matters. He knows the pace of the event and what it takes to reach the final.
One Sleeper Pick
Ben Rice may not receive the same attention as some of the other names, but he has the power to surprise the field. The Derby often produces one unexpected finalist, and Rice has the type of swing that could fit this format.
Betting Outlook
The new rules place more value on consistency than speed. Players no longer have time to wait for the right pitch. Every swing counts, so hitters who stay under control may have an edge over players who simply swing as hard as possible.
Home-field support can help, but it does not guarantee success. The winner will likely be the player who wastes the fewest swings while keeping the ball in the air.
Prediction
Pick to Win: Jac Caglianone
Caglianone has the power to lead the field in the opening round and carry that momentum through the bracket. The new format rewards hitters who can produce home runs without wasting swings, and he has the ability to do that.
Prediction: Jac Caglianone defeats Bryce Harper in the final to win the 2026 Home Run Derby.
