The road to the Super Bowl continues Sunday with an AFC Conference championship game between the Buffalo Bills (13-3) and the Kansas City Chiefs (14-2). The Chiefs will host this one from Arrowhead Stadium, with kickoff scheduled for 6:40 pm ET.
For Buffalo, they got to this point after beating the Baltimore Ravens in the Divisional Round last weekend, 17-3. In the win, the offense underperformed as Josh Allen threw for just 206 yards and one touchdown. Still, an average Bills’ defense held Baltimore to just a single field goal.
For Chiefs’ fans, there was plenty of panic last weekend. In their 22-17 win over the Cleveland Browns, star quarterback Patrick Mahomes was knocked out of the game with a concussion. With the Browns surging, backup Chad Henne was able to do just enough to get the Chiefs back to the AFC championship.
On Friday, it was announced that Patrick Mahomes had cleared the concussion protocol and was good to go for the game on Sunday.
The Chiefs are slight favorites playing at home. They are -186 to win while the Bills’ moneyline sits at +156. The spread features the Bills +3 while the over/under for total points is 54.5.
By The Numbers
Offensively, these are two of the best in the league. Buffalo currently ranks 3rd in scoring averaging 30.3 points per game. Kansas City ranks 5th averaging 29.1.
Both are incredibly potent through the air. Kansas City ranks atop the NFL in passing yards per game with 304.1 while Buffalo ranks 3rd averaging 283.8.
Defensively, Kansas City has a slight edge. In terms of scoring defense, they rank 9th, allowing an average of 22.3 points per game. Buffalo comes in just a couple of spots behind at 11th, allowing 22.3 points.
Given how strong the passing games are, the passing defenses will have some work. Kansas City ranks 13th in passing defense, allowing 233.8 yards per game, while Buffalo ranks 14th, allowing 234.7.
Buffalo Looking For Upset Over Defending Champions
The old saying is to be the best; you have to beat the best. The Bills will have that opportunity Sunday playing the defending champions from last year.
To win, quarterback Josh Allen will need to play better than last week. For an offense that relies heavily on the pass, he will need to get it going early and often to keep up with Mahomes and the Chiefs’ offense.
This season, Allen threw for 4,544 yards, 37 touchdowns, and just ten interceptions. He can also do damage with his feet, as he rushed for 421 yards and another eight scores.
Stefon Diggs and Cole Beasley have been Allen’s favorite targets this season. Diggs had 127 catches for 1,535 yards and eight scores. Beasley had 82 catches for 967 yards and four scores. Given that Kansas City’s cornerback Bashaud Breeland is questionable for this one, it could open the way for these two to have a big day.
Kansas City Looking To Get Back To Super Bowl
After winning the Super Bowl last year, the Chiefs have been here before and know what it takes to get back. Chiefs’ fans can breathe a little easier as Patrick Mahomes is a go for this one, but it will be interesting to see if his toe injury limits his mobility.
This season, Mahomes has put himself in the MVP conversation again after throwing for 4,740 yards, 38 touchdowns, and just six interceptions. He has also rushed for 308 yards and a couple of scores.
Like Allen, he has a couple of spectacular receiving options in Tyreek Hill and tight end Travis Kelce. Hill had 87 receptions for 1,276 yards and 15 touchdowns this season. Kelce went for 105 receptions, 1,416 yards, and 11 touchdowns.
Taking Bills And The Points
While the Chiefs have only lost two games this season, they have not had the same sort of dominance that they have had in the past. In fact, on the season, they are just 6-10-1 against the spread.
I expect the Bills to bounce back against a much easier defense than what they played last weekend. Especially if Mahomes shows any signs of discomfort after last week, I like the Bills to take this one outright, but I especially like them with the three points.
