The no. 9 Oklahoma Sooners will look to get back on track this week when they pay a visit to the TCU Horned Frogs in a rematch of last year’s Big 12 Championship Game. The Sooners are 8-point favorites on the road with an over/under for the game set at 62 points.
This is Oklahoma’s first game since their loss to Texas in the Red River Rivalry. They had last week off and now have to play with the pressure of knowing that another loss will knock them completely out of the College Football Playoff Picture and could potentially knock them out of contention in the Big 12 title race.
TCU, meanwhile, knows they have to win out and get a little luck if they hope to return to the Big 12 title game. The Horned Frogs lost to Texas Tech 17-14 last week, dropping them to 3-3 overall and 1-2 in Big 12 play. With seven teams in the Big 12 having two or fewer losses in conference play, there is still hope for TCU, but they can’t afford to lose another game.
Stop Where You Are
Despite the disappointing record, the Horned Frogs can almost always rely on a strong effort from their defense. In their last two games, TCU has allowed 17 points or fewer, both against Big 12 opponents. The caveat is that they faced a backup quarterback in both games. That doesn’t take away how good the Horned Frogs are on that side of the ball, but they did experience some good fortune.
It’s also important to note that the Oklahoma offense they’ll face this week isn’t just another Big 12 offense. Behind the dynamic Kyler Murray, the Sooners may be better offensively than they were a year ago under Baker Mayfield. In all but one game this season, the Sooners have scored at least 37 points. They’ve also scored over 60 points in two of their six games. Even against quality defenses, the Oklahoma offense can move the ball at will and score points in high doses.
Can We Get A Move On?
Meanwhile, the TCU offense has had some problems getting going this season. In their four games against power conference teams, the Horned Frogs are averaging less than 19 points per game. In those four games, quarterback Shawn Robinson has thrown five touchdowns and seven interceptions. Not only is he struggling to guide TCU to the end zone, but he’s been turnover prone as well.
The silver lining for the Horned Frogs is that the Oklahoma defense has been nothing special this season. They’re giving up 36 points per game during Big 12 play and fired defensive coordinator Mike Stoops after the loss to Texas. To be fair, they’ve had two weeks to sort out some of their issues, but the Oklahoma defense is likely to be a little vulnerable against TCU.
Back to Business
Even if the Sooners have some holes on defense, the Horned Frogs don’t have the quarterback or offensive playmakers to keep up in a track meet. The TCU defense will be solid in the 1st half but will start to fold in the 2nd half. Once the Sooners start rolling offensively, the Horned Frogs won’t be able to keep up. Bet on Oklahoma -8 to win and cover against TCU.
