Boise State Broncos vs. UCF Knights Betting Preview

Thursday night features a Group of 5 matchup as the Boise State Broncos square off with the UCF Knights. The Knights will host this one at the Bounce House, with kickoff scheduled for 7:00 pm ET.

Last season, Boise State finished second in the Mountain West with a 5-0 conference record and a 5-2 overall record. Unfortunately, they dropped the Mountain West title game 34-20 to San Jose State. Now, under new head coach Andy Avalos, the Broncos will look to get off to a strong start as they take on UCF.

Speaking of the Knights, they finished with a 5-3 record in the AAC and a 6-4 record overall. While they were solid on the road last year (4-1), they were just mediocre at home (2-2).

Unfortunately for Knights’ fans, they lost the Boca Raton Bowl to BYU 49-23. Like Boise State, they are also under new leadership as Gus Malzahn takes over for the Knights.

UCF is the favorite in this one playing at home. They are -215, while Boise State’s moneyline sits at +172. The spread features the Broncos +5.5 (-110), and the over/under for total points is 68.5.

By The Numbers

Last season, UCF was one of the best scoring teams in college football. They ranked seventh overall on offense, averaging 42.2 points per game. Boise State ranked 25th, averaging 33.9 points per game.

Defensively, it was Boise State who held the advantage last year. They ranked 52nd in scoring defense, allowing opponents 27.1 points per game. The Knights ranked 87th allowing 33.2 points.

Current Season Odds

There are high expectations for Boise State this season as they are currently the favorites to win the Mountain West with odds of +115. UCF has the second-best odds of winning the AAC at +400.

While longshots, Boise State has the better odds of winning the National Championship at +25000. UCF is +50000 to win it all.

Boise State Looks To Win First-Ever Matchup With UCF

As two of the favorites to win their respective conferences, not only is this a high-profile matchup within the Group of 5, but this is the first-ever matchup between the two powerhouses.

Leading the way for Boise State is quarterback Hank Bachmeier. Last season, he threw for 1,150 yards, six touchdowns, and two interceptions.

Luckily, Bachmeier has his two best receivers back in Khalil Shakir and CT Thomas. Last season, Shakir had 719 yards and six touchdowns, while Thomas had 347 yards and two scores.

George Holani leads the way in the backfield. After missing most of last season with a knee injury, he returns after rushing for 1,014 yards and seven scores in 2019.

UCF Looks To Mirror Offensive Dominance From Last Year

For as many tools as Boise State returns, the Knights may still have even more firepower. This is mostly thanks to junior quarterback Dillon Gabriel.

Last season, Gabriel threw for 3,570 yards, 32 touchdowns, and only four interceptions. He also rushed for 169 yards and a couple more scores.

UCF also has the advantage of arguably one of the best offensive lines in the nation. All five of their starters from last year are back. Giving Gabriel even more time is a dangerous thing for opposing defenses.

For the Knights’ defense, they were inconsistent last year but were also able to add some impressive transfers. One such transfer is Big Kat Bryant, a defensive lineman transfer from Auburn.

Which Streak Will End?

Both of these teams have been solid in openers in recent years. Boise State has currently won six openers in a row, while UCF has won five. In what should be a fantastic matchup, one of these streaks will sadly have to come to an end.

With a number of offensive starters returning on both teams, it would not be surprising to see this turn into a bit of a shootout. For that reason, even though the 68.5 points is pretty lofty, the over may not be a bad pick.

With a shootout expected, though, there is just a bit more comfort siding with Gabriel. He has been fantastic in his first two seasons under center, and there isn’t any reason to believe that won’t continue in his junior year.

Take UCF to win at home.