Boston Celtics at Miami Heat Game 6 Betting Pick
No team in NBA history has ever overcome a 3-0 series deficit. The team with a 3-0 series lead is 150-0 in NBA history.
Yet, game six is must win for the Miami Heat, who hold a 3-2 series lead over the Boston Celtics and are dealing with depth issues caused by injury. As Miami regressed in its three-point shooting efficiency and gave up too many turnovers in the last two games, the Boston Celtics have been shooting at a significantly higher three-point range, shooting closer to their season average.
The pressure is on the Miami Heat to win game six of the Eastern Conference Finals, which is a must-win for both teams. We’ll review the stats, trends, and odds before making our game six betting picks. You can catch game six of the Eastern Conference Finals from Miami, Florida, at 8:30 PM ET on TNT, NBA League Pass, and fuboTV.
Boston Celtics at Miami Heat Game 6 Odds
The Boston Celtics are the rare road moneyline favorite, listed between -138 and -150, while the Miami Heat are listed between +118 to +125. Boston is 67-33 straight-up this season, while Miami is 56-44.
The point spread is set to 3 points, but some sportsbooks have the spread set to 2.5 points. Both the over and under is listed at -110. The Celtics have a 55-44-2 ats record, while the Heat have a 43-55-2 ats record.
The total points are set to 210.0 or 210.5, with the over and under listed at -110 odds. The Heat have a 51-48-1 over/under record, while the Celtics are 51-46-3 over/under.
Boston Celtics at Miami Heat Game 6 Betting Trends
- Miami holds a 5-4 advantage in the head-to-head season series.
- The home team is 5-4 this season. Boston is 2-2 in Miami.
- The Under is 5-1 in the previous six meetings in Miami.
- The over is 3-2 in the Eastern Conference Finals, with games four and five hitting the under.
- The over is 11-3 in Boston’s previous 14 road games.
- The Celtics are 5-2 ats in the previous seven games in Miami.
Boston Celtics at Miami Heat Game 6 Stats
The Boston Celtics are averaging 113.9 ppg, shooting 48.5% from the field and 39.1% on three-point attempts in the playoffs.
The Celtics are averaging 38.1 rebounds per game (rpg) and have a 45.9% defended field goal average (dfgm).
Boston has a 30-19 road record, while Miami has a 34-16 home record.
The Miami Heat are averaging 112.8 ppg, shooting 47.9% from the field, and shooting 38.0% from beyond the arc.
Miami is grabbing 40.6 rpg in the playoffs and has a 47.2% dfgm.
Boston Celtics at Miami Heat Game 6 Betting Picks
The first of our picks for game six is to take the over of 210.5. This total points line is the lowest of the head-to-head meetings this season, with only two games hitting under 210 total points this weekend.
Our second pick is the hardest: will Boston force a game seven (which they’ll win), or will Playoff Jimmy and the Butlerettes show up and secure a date with Denver Nuggets in the NBA Finals?
This game comes down to three-point shooting efficiency, which the last two games have favored the Boston Celtics, while the Miami Heat have regressed to their regular season three-point shooting efficiency.
We’re also concerned with Miami’s current depth at point guard and Bam Adebayo’s recent performances.
We’re taking the Boston Celtics to force a game seven, and when they do, they’ll win game seven and make more history.
