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Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots Betting Preview

Monday Night Football features an AFC East showdown between the Buffalo Bills (11-3) and the New England Patriots (6-8). The Patriots will host this one from Gillette Stadium, with kickoff scheduled for 8:15 pm ET.

At 11-3, the Buffalo Bills are primed to win the AFC East for the first time since 1995 and would love nothing more than to add a cherry on top by beating the New England Patriots in both of their regular-season matchups.  

Buffalo comes into this one having won four in a row. Last weekend, the Bills beat the Broncos 48-19 behind 359 yards and two touchdowns by quarterback Josh Allen.  

For the Patriots, they are missing the playoffs for the first time since 2008. In their first year without Tom Brady under center in over a decade, it has been a year full of inconsistency. They will look to defend their home field, but they come into this one having lost two in a row.

Despite being the road team, the Bills are the favorites to win this matchup. They are -320 to win while the Patriots’ moneyline sits at +260. The spread features New England +7 while the over/under for total point is 46.5.

By The Numbers

Offensively, the Bills have played significantly better. They currently rank 7th in the NFL in points per game at 29.1. The Patriots fall to 27th, averaging just 20.6 points per game.

Defensively, it is the Patriots who hold the edge. New England ranks 6th in the NFL in points allowed per game at 21.5. The Bills rank 17th overall, allowing opponents just 24.3 points per game.

Buffalo Bills Look To Make It Five In A Row

With only two games left to play before the playoffs, the Bills are peaking at the right time. They would love to keep it going over the next couple of weeks and be one of the hottest teams entering the playoffs.

To do so, they will turn to Allen to lead the way. On the season, Allen has thrown for 4,000 yards, 30 touchdowns, and just nine interceptions. He has also rushed 96 times for 383 yards and another eight touchdowns.

Through the air, Stefon Diggs and Cole Beasley have been Allen’s most reliable receivers. Diggs has 111 receptions for 1,314 yards and five scores. Cole Beasley has 79 receptions for 950 yards and four scores.

Defensively, the team is led by Jordan Poyer (85 tackles), Tre’Davious White (three interceptions), and two players (Mario Addison and A.J. Klein) tied with five sacks each.

Patriots Try To Find Positives In Otherwise Rough Season

It has been odd seeing the New England Patriots and Bill Belichick have so many problems on the field, but the retooling Patriots hope for some positives to end the season. The first positive would simply be snapping their two-game losing streak.

With Brady gone, it has been Cam Newton under center this season for New England. This year, Newton has thrown for 2,381 yards but only five touchdowns. In fact, he has double the interceptions (10) as touchdowns.

On the ground, Newton has had some success with his feet. He has rushed for 489 yards and 11 touchdowns.

If the Patriots are going to win this one, it will have to be with their strong defense. The defensive stat leaders for the Patriots are Adrian Philips (101 tackles), Chase Winovich (3.5 sacks), and J.C. Jackson (8 interceptions).

Bills Win, But Can They Cover?

Frankly, there isn’t a whole lot to be excited about with the Patriots. Yes, their defense has been solid, but their offense has struggled so badly even the best defenses can eventually wear down.

On Monday, that is exactly what I anticipate the Bills doing, wearing down the Patriots’ defense. The Patriots will have their hands full, and they just don’t have the firepower on offense to keep up with them.  

For my money, I am taking the Bills to win and to cover the spread.

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