Saturday night features a National League battle of Central versus West as the Chicago Cubs (25-31) take on the San Diego Padres (26-31). The Padres will host this one at Petco Park, with first pitch scheduled for 10:10 pm ET.
This will be the second of a three-game series. The Cubs were able to take the first game on Friday 2-1. In the win, Dansby Swanson hit his sixth home run of the season.
The Padres are the favorite in this one playing at home. They are -184 to win, while the Cubs’ moneyline sits at +154. The runline features Chicago +1.5 (-140), and the over/under for total runs is eight.
Cubs Look To Improve On The Road Against Familiar Face
At 25-31, the Cubs have had an inconsistent season, but they have especially struggled on the road (10-15). They will try to improve that record on Saturday as they face a familiar foe in Yu Darvish, who pitched with Chicago for three seasons.
Facing off with Darvis will be lefty Drew Smyly. This season, the lefty has gone 5-2 in 11 games with a 3.45 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, and he has 53 strikeouts in 60 innings. In his last start, Smyly was roughed up by the Reds after giving up five earned runs in just 4.2 innings.
Offensively, the Cubs rank 15th in scoring, averaging 4.51 runs per game (4.75 on the road). In the power department, they are led by Patrick Wisdom. Despite hitting just .210/.297/.519, Wisdom leads the team with 14 home runs and 28 runs batted in.
Against Darvish, keep an eye on Yan Gomes. In 11 at bats against the righty, Gomes is hitting .455 with a home run and three runs batted in.
Padres Underperforming This Season
Going into the season, there were grand expectations that the Padres would be able to take down the Dodgers in the NL West. Over a third of the way through the season, the Padres sit in fourth in the division, sitting eight games back.
Hoping to improve on their 12-16 home record, Yu Darvish will take the ball for Bob Melvin’s squad. In 10 games, he is 3-4 with a 4.61 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, and he has 59 strikeouts in 56.2 innings. Darvish has really struggled as of late as he has given up 14 earned runs in his last 14 innings of work.
With a lineup that includes players like Xander Bogaerts, Juan Soto, and Fernando Tatis Jr, it is surprising that the Padres rank 23rd in scoring, averaging just 4.18 runs per game (3.48 at home).
Soto currently leads the team in home runs (10), runs batted in (26), and runs scored (32). He also has homered off of Drew Smyly in his career.
Take Cubs To Win
Exemplified by the one-run game on Friday, this matchup could really go either way. Both teams have been mired in mediocrity, and both pitchers have veterans going that have shown signs of dominance, but also have been prone to fits of being roughed up.
With that in mind, the value in this one resides with the Cubs. Not only were they able to steal a game on the road Friday, but they are catching Yu Darvish at a time when he has had a string of rough outings.
The safe pick might be to take Chicago +1.5 (-140), but there is enough value in taking them to win this one straight up at +154.
