The Denver Broncos hit the road for a Thursday night matchup with the New York Jets to kick off the NFL’s week three in a matchup of 0-3 teams. Injuries have decimated both squads as the Jets are playing without their star running back Le’veon Bell, while the Broncos are planning on starting their third-string quarterback after losing Drew Locke indefinitely during week 1.
The Broncos injury woes are some of the worst in the league as they have lost Courtland Sutton, Von Miller, AJ Bouye, and Locke. Running back Phillip Lindsay is also nicked up with a toe injury and is questionable for this game.
The Jets aren’t as bad off as the Broncos, but on a team that is seriously lacking playmakers on offense, the loss of Bell is a significant blow.
Can the Broncos buck the trend?
While the Broncos are 0-3 straight up this season, they are 2-1 against the spread. The credit there goes to a strong coaching staff led by Vic Fangio. Despite the loss of Miller and Bouye, they have yet to give up more than 28 points in a game in which they have faced the Titans, Bucs, and Steelers. Keeping the score low obviously means the under is the most likely scenario in this game, given that the Jets are far from an offensive juggernaut.
The biggest question in this game is, of course, the decision to go with Brett Rypien at the quarterback position after Jeff Driskell was largely ineffective last week. Rypien is the nephew of Super Bowl champion Mark Rypien who won the title in 1991. Brett has never thrown a regular-season pass in the NFL but did throw for over 13,000 yards and 90 touchdowns while at Boise State.
Denver is 10-5 against the spread in their last 15 games and have hit the under in four of their last six games dating back to last season. Two of their three games this season have gone under.
Can the Jets Answer the Bell?
It is difficult to evaluate your potential franchise quarterback when he has very few playmakers around him, and this season is shaping up to be more of the same for the Jets. Along with Bell’s absence, wide receivers Jamison Crowder and Chris Hogan are both not healthy either though both are expected to play.
The Jets are 2-6 against the spread in their last eight games dating back to last season and have gone under in six of their previous nine games. They are 0-3 ATS so far this season and have hit the over on two of three games in 2020.
Prediction
The home team is 20-8-1 against the spread on Thursday night since the 2018 season. That number is huge. The Broncos are starting their third-string quarterback who has never started an NFL game or thrown a meaningful NFL pass. Do we need to dive any further than that?
Give me the Jets to cover (-1.5), and given the complete lack of playmakers in this game, I’ll take the under (41). Don’t overthink it.
