Houston Astros at Boston Red Sox Game 3 Betting Preview
With it all tied up at one game apiece, the ALCS Game 3 will get underway Monday night as the Houston Astros (1-1) take on the Boston Red Sox (1-1). The Red Sox will host this one at Fenway Park, with the first pitch scheduled for 8:08 pm ET.
After dropping the first game in Houston, the Red Sox responded in a big way in Game 2, winning 9-5 Saturday. In the win, the Red Sox hit two grand slams in the first two innings.
J.D. Martinez and Rafael Devers both delivered the big blows, while Kike Hernadez added a solo shot in the fourth inning. Nathan Eovaldi picked up the win for the Red Sox as he allowed three runs over 5.1 innings.
It was a dismal start for the Astros’ Luis Garcia, who gave up five runs on two hits and three walks before leaving in the second with a knee injury. Jake Odorizzi came in and ate up four innings but gave up four runs in the process.
Offensively, both Yuli Gurriel and Jason Castro hit home runs in the ninth inning, but it was a little too late as the Astros couldn’t complete a comeback.
The moneylines for this one are really close as the Astros are -104 to win, while the Red Sox are -112. The runline features Boston +1.5 (-176), and the over/under for total runs is nine.
Pitching Matchup
The Astros will turn to righty Jose Urquidy to make the start Monday night. This will be his first start of the postseason.
In 20 games this season, Urquidy went 8-3 with a 3.62 ERA, 0.99 WHIP, and he struck out 90 in 107 innings pitched. In his last seven starts of the regular season, Urquidy went 2-0 with a 4.35 ERA.
The Red Sox will counter with lefty Eduardo Rodriguez. This postseason, Rodriguez is 0-1 with a 5.40 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, and seven strikeouts in 6.2 innings. In his career in the postseason, he is 0-1 with a 7.02 ERA in 16.2 total innings.
During the regular season, though, he was much better, going 13-8 with a 4.74 ERA, 1.39 WHIP, and he struck out 185 in 157.2 innings.
By The Numbers
The Astros have had the best offense in baseball throughout the entire season. They rank atop the list in scoring, averaging 5.38 runs per game (5.45 on the road). The Red Sox rank fourth, averaging 5.17 runs, but they are even better at Fenway Park, where they average 5.81 runs.
In terms of defense, the Astros are the better of the two teams. They rank eighth in scoring defense, allowing 4.10 runs per game to opponents. The Red Sox rank 18th, allowing 4.62 runs per game.
Astros Trying To Overcome Pitching Woes
Lance McCullers Jr. is out with forearm tightness. Luis Garcia suffered a knee injury in Game 2. For the Astros, they are hoping that Jose Urquidy can come in and eat some innings for a team that has had to rely on their bullpen far too much this postseason.
If Urquidy can pitch even into the fifth, that will be a huge boost for an Astros’ team that is averaging 6.83 runs per game on offense this postseason.
Leading the way for the Astros is second baseman Jose Altuve. In 24 at-bats this postseason, he is hitting .250/.387/.583 with two home runs, six runs batted in, and 11 runs scored.
Another player that has been on fire this postseason is shortstop Carlos Correa. Helping to ensure a huge payday after the season, Correa is hitting .429/.520/.667 with a home run, five runs batted in, and six runs scored.
Boston Hopes To Take Series Lead With Home Field Advantage
During the regular season, the Boston Red Sox were 52-29 when playing at Fenway Park this year. They hope to use that home-field advantage to take the series lead Monday night.
Offensively, there hasn’t been a hotter hitter in baseball this postseason than Kike Hernandez. In fact, in Game 2, he set the record for most extra-base hits through the first seven games of a postseason with nine.
In that span, Hernandez is hitting an unbelievable .500/.514/1.094 with five home runs, nine runs batted in, and nine runs scored.
If that wasn’t enough, Rafael Devers (.310, 3 HR, 10 RBI), Xander Bogaerts (.321 avg, 2 HR), J.D. Martinez (.391 avg., 2 HR, 8 RBI), and Kyle Schwarber (.286, 2 HR) have all been red hot as well.
Taking Boston And The Runs
It can’t be overstated how badly the Astros need a good outing from Jose Urquidy. Houston’s bullpen has been asked to pick up 14.1 of the first 18 innings of this series.
If Urquidy can have any success, the Astros are in a good spot to steal back the home-field advantage in the series. If not, the Red Sox could keep rolling all the way to the World Series.
With so much uncertainty, the smart bet is on the runline. Especially playing at home, take Boston +1.5 in this one.
