Kansas City Chiefs at Baltimore Ravens (-3.5)
Monday, September 28th, 2020
M&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore MD
Total: 54.5
The Kansas City Chiefs take their 2-0 record on the road to face the Baltimore Ravens, who also boast a perfect record through two weeks. This is a fitting end to the week three slate, as two of the premier quarterbacks in the league face off on Monday Night Football.
Lamar Jackson couldn’t be playing any better for the Ravens to start the season. The third-year signal-caller is completing a ridiculous 78% of his pass attempts while averaging nearly 10 yards per attempt. He has yet to throw an interception and is also the Raven’s leading rusher with 99 yards with his legs through the first two weeks.
Super Bowl MVP Patrick Mahomes hasn’t exactly been slacking through the first two weeks, totaling 513 yards passing with five touchdowns. Tyreek Hill is starting to hit his stride in the offense, while rookie running back Clyde Edwards-Helaire has been able to stabilize a backfield that was a question mark heading into the season.
This is a matchup of two of the most exciting offenses in the league. Both teams also boast a top 10 defense in points allowed per game, however.
Can the KC Defense Contain Jackson?
Most NFL defenses struggle against Baltimore’s QB, who was the league MVP a year ago. In last seasons matchup between these teams, Kansas City was able to keep Jackson out of the endzone through the air, but he did get one rushing score. The Chiefs ultimately won the game by five, but Jackson played well.
Kansas City is 10-1 against the spread in their last 11 games, and 10-0 straight up in their last ten. Four of the Chiefs last six games have hit the over, and they are also 7-1 straight up in their last eight games on the road.
Ravens Fly High or Run Wild?
In last season’s matchup, the Ravens defense was torched by Mahomes for 374 yards and three scores, even though the Chiefs were without the injured Hill.
Mark Ingram was a bright spot against Kansas City in last seasons game for the Ravens, totaling 103 yards with three scores on the ground.
The Ravens are 6-1 against the spread in their last 7 games, while going 14-1 straight up in their last 15 overall. The total has gone under in four of Baltimore’s last five overall, but has gone over in four of the last six head to head meetings with the Chiefs.
My Pick
The Ravens running game is my main concern here. While Jackson can certainly make things happen with his legs, there isn’t much consistency among the current stable of Baltimore running backs as no one averaging more than 50 yards per game.
Kansas City is loaded on offense and firing on all cylinders. I think the Chiefs not only cover the +3.5 but also win the game straight up. These are probably the two best teams in the NFL but right now I think Kansas City is clearly better. Take the Chiefs +140.
