As part of the thrilling late-afternoon NFL slate on Sunday, the 2-3 Denver Broncos will host the 5-1 Kansas City Chiefs. It’s the first meeting between these AFC West rivals this season, as Denver looks to pull off the upset against first-place Kansas City.
Here is a preview for Sunday’s game between the Chiefs and Broncos. Kansas City is a 7.5-point favorite on the road, according to the latest odds.
By the Numbers
The defending champion Chiefs once again have one of the game’s most explosive offenses. Through six games, Kansas City is averaging 423.5 yards per game, third in the NFL, while also averaging just shy of 30 points per game.
The passing game, which ranks seventh in terms of yardage, is, of course, aided by star quarterback Patrick Mahomes and pass-catchers like tight end Travis Kielce and wide receiver Tyreek Hill. They’re also gaining about 140 yards on the ground each week thanks to rookie running back Clyde Edwards-Helaire, and will now welcome the addition of former Pro Bowler Le’Veon Bell to the backfield.
On the flip side, Kansas City’s defense has been better than some expected. The Chiefs are allowing 21.2 points per game, the ninth-lowest in the league, while also giving up a 12th-lowest 365 total yards.
A big part of that is their play against the pass, where a slick combination of pass-rushers and playmakers in the secondary give the Chiefs the third-best pass defense in football. However, they have shown a vulnerability against the run, allowing the third-highest average of 145.3 rushing yards.
As for the Broncos, injuries have prevented this promising offense from reaching its full potential. Through five games, Denver is averaging exactly 20 points per game, the fourth-fewest in the league.
The Broncos are also averaging the fifth-fewest total yards with just over 331. Denver is hoping to get a boost from quarterback Drew Lock, who suffered an injury in Week 2 and made his return last week against the Patriots.
With wide receiver Courtland Sutton out for the year, wide receiver Tim Patrick, wide receiver Jerry Jeudy and tight end Noah Fant will join Lock in improving a passing game that is just 27th in yards per game. Running backs Phillip Lindsay and Melvin Gordon are also hoping to get going against Kansas City’s shaky run defense, even though Denver is only 25th in average rushing yards.
Head coach Vic Fangio has still had a solid defense to work with. The Broncos are allowing 22 points per game, good for 11th in the NFL, while also averaging just over 370 yards allowed.
The defense was also hit with major injuries to standouts like edge rusher Von Miller and cornerback A.J. Bouye but still ranks 13th in rushing yards and 19th in passing yards allowed. The best part of Denver’s defense is its success rate on third down, which at 38.2 percent is the ninth-highest rate in football.
Keys to Victory
Chiefs will win if: Their run defense builds off last week. The defending champion Chiefs have had a chink in the armor this season, and that’s their run defense. But against the Bills, Kansas City held its opponent to 87 yards on 23 carries.
This Sunday, the Broncos will look to establish the run with their now-healthy backs to take pressure off Lock. So the Chiefs will load the front-seven in the box and make Denver beat them through the air.
Broncos will win if: Their defense is lights out. Simply put, it’s not easy to go up against Mahomes and contain Kansas City’s big-time offense. But Denver’s defense may have turned a corner last week against the Patriots.
Last Sunday, the Broncos held New England to no touchdowns, forced four fumbles and racked up three takeaways, more than double what they had entering the game. They also blitzed on nearly a third of quarterback Cam Newton’s throws and about half of his dropbacks. Expect the Broncos to bring the blitz on Mahomes and focus on limiting scores in the red zone.
Injury Report
The Chiefs will be without four players due to injury, two on each side of the football. Offensive tackle Mitchell Schwartz didn’t practice all week due to a back injury and will miss the game, as will oft-injured wide receiver Sammy Watkins. A pair of pass rushers, Taco Charlton and Alex Okafor, have been ruled out as well.
The Broncos are a little lighter on the injuries. Starting guard Dalton Risner was finally able to return to practice in a limited capacity on Friday and is officially questionable for the game. Others, like edge rusher Bradley Chubb and tight end Noah Fant, were taken off the injury report after being limited earlier in the week.
Betting Pick
With Kansas City looking like one of the best teams in the league and Denver riding a two-game winning streak, this has the potential to be one of the best games of the weekend. I’m actually expecting this game to be closer than some think, as the Broncos defense showed big improvements last week, and Denver is getting some firepower back on offense.
While I think the Chiefs pull this one out thanks to Mahomes magic, I like the Broncos to cover.
Pick: Broncos +7.5
