Week 3 of the NFL season kicks off with a Sunshine State battle between the Miami Dolphins and Jacksonville Jaguars. At home, the Jaguars are listed as three-point favorites with an over/under of 47 points.
Before the season, Jacksonville was everybody’s pick to finish with the worst record and receive the top pick in next year’s draft. However, they pulled off a surprise win over the Colts in Week 1. The Jags fell back to earth in Week 2 with a loss to Tennessee, but they put up a fight, only losing 33-30.
Meanwhile, the Dolphins have started the year 0-2, despite optimism that they might be able to compete for a playoff spot after a strong finish in 2019. To their credit, the Dolphins put up a good fight against Buffalo last week, although they were out-gained by more than 100 yards, and a last-minute touchdown made the game appear a little closer than it was.
Fitz-Magic
There hasn’t been much magic from Ryan Fitzpatrick through the first two weeks of the season. He’s been sacked four times and has more interceptions than touchdowns. Despite the struggles from Fitzpatrick, Miami’s receiving corps isn’t too shabby. Tight end Mike Gesicki has also made an impact early in the year.
The biggest problem has been Miami’s rushing attack. Offseason additions of Matt Breida and Jordan Howard haven’t paid off, with the overlooked Myles Gaskin leading the team in rushing at the moment.
The Jacksonville defense has been anything but stout thus far. The Jaguars allowed Ryan Tannehill to complete 18 of 24 passes for four touchdowns last week while getting just one sack. They did manage to keep Derrick Henry in check for most of the game, but without a better pass rush, the Jacksonville secondary will continue to be vulnerable. Miami will need to capitalize on the secondary shortcomings to pull the upset.
Minshew Magic
If Gardner Minshew keeps up his performance from the first two weeks, Clemson quarterback and future NFL Star Trevor Lawrence can forget about house hunting in Jacksonville. Minshew has completed 75% of his passes with six touchdown passes and two interceptions through two weeks. The chemistry he built last year with D.J. Chark has translated into 2020 success.
The Jaguars are also getting offensive balance from undrafted rookie running back James Robinson. While Minshew’s two picks hurt the Jags last week, the offense totaled 480 yards and 30 points against an ordinarily stingy Titans defense.
Meanwhile, the Miami defense remains a work in progress. They were shredded on the ground against New England in Week 1, then couldn’t handle Josh Allen and the Buffalo aerial attack in Week 2. This week, both could be a concern with a handful of key players on Miami’s defense listed as questionable on the injury report.
Time to Believe
It might be time to believe that Minshew can play in this league and that the Jaguars aren’t as terrible as everybody thought. Minshew can sling it, especially when the Jacksonville rushing attack contributes to balance the offense. At this point, the Jaguars have the better quarterback in this game and also appear to have a better defense than Miami.
The spread is only three points, so bet on the Jaguars to win and cover at home on Thursday night.
