After a 16-0 game on Tuesday to begin the series, the Miami Marlins and Milwaukee Brewers will continue their three-game series on Wednesday night. Despite being on the losing end of Tuesday’s 16-0 score, the Brewers are heavy -240 favorites to win on Wednesday.
The Marlins, of course, are one of the worst teams in baseball. They sit 14 games under .500 and have the fewest wins in the National League. But it’s not been all bad for Miami recently. The Marlins have started June on a three-game winning streak. They’ve also won 12 of their last 17 games, a stretch that included a six-game winning streak, so they were better during the second half of May.
The Brewers, meanwhile, have stumbled into mediocrity lately, going 7-8 in their last 15 games. On the plus side, they remain seven games over .500 and are currently tied with the Cubs at the top of the NL Central. Of course, that race figures to be tight all season, so they need to make sure they beat up on second-division teams like the Marlins.
First Time in Forever
Jimmy Nelson will come off the IL to make Wednesday’s start for Milwaukee. This will be Nelson’s first start for the Brewers since September of 2017. He sat out all of last season after having shoulder surgery. Before the injury, Nelson was having a career year, going 12-6 with a 3.49 ERA. However, whether he’s able to return to that level remains uncertain. On the bright side, he went 3-0 with a 3.75 ERA during his minor league rehab.
Nelson will also have the benefit of facing a lackluster Miami lineup. Obviously, the 16 runs the Marlins scored on Tuesday was a bit of an aberration. To be fair, the likes of Garrett Cooper, Brian Anderson, and Starlin Castro give the Marlins some solid options in the middle of the order. They’ve also scored 34 runs in their last three games. But the Marlins are also prone to being shut out, so they can be vulnerable if Nelson is sharp in his return.
Learning Process
Sandy Alcantara will get the start for Miami on Wednesday. He’s had plenty of ups and downs during his first extended action in the majors. He tossed six shutout innings against the Giants in his last time out and also had a two-hit complete game shutout against the Mets last month. However, he’s also allowed at least four runs in five of his 11 starts this season, so the game-to-game consistency isn’t there yet for the 23-year-old.
Despite being shut out on Tuesday, the Brewers boast a scary lineup. Christian Yelich, Mike Moustakas, Yasmani Grandal, and Lorenzo Cain are all swinging good bats at the moment. Travis Shaw is also back in the lineup, giving the Brewers yet another left-handed bat with power to throw at Alcantara and the Miami bullpen.
Against the Grain
The Brewers are likely to win this game, but with the uncertainty of Nelson’s first start in over a year and a half, the moneyline is way too high. Given Miami’s recent hot streak and their offensive outburst on Tuesday, it makes sense to take a chance with the underdog and the chance of a big payoff. Bet on the Marlins to beat the Brewers on Wednesday.
